Is the Afghan exit ramp ready, or still under construction somewhere in the Hill? Interesting developments of past few months have once again proved that national interests force strange bed fellows to meet in bonhomie. USA’s exit policy is going to be a regimen of fixes and preconditions. Quick withdrawal is not an option for US troops or coalition forces, because it is sure a recipe of failure. It is going to create a power vacuum as it happened after the Russian withdrawal. Three things central to the US policy are: withdrawal of limited troops, reconciliation with Taliban and the application of drone attacks.
Under German sponsorship the reconciliation with the Taliban will revolve around four interlinked steps: one, the ceasefire; secondly, significant withdrawal of US troops; thirdly, the formulation of coalition government; and finally the enforcement mechanism. These four step formulation will take a lot of steam from all the quarters.
India, Pakistan and Afghanistan are going to be the players of this end game. It is going to be the process supervised by one denominator, the USA. Take Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Islamabad declaration is a leap forward. Another partner of this end game in Afghanistan is India. The Indian PM has announced an aid of 500 million dollars for infrastructure and agriculture.
All three regional players, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India are having political gear shifts. The key is the reconciliation with Taliban.
ABID LATIF SINDHU
Karachi
