Even if the $72 million pile of smoldering debris at PNS Mehran was cleared up in the blink of an eye, the debacle has given rise to too many questions that simply cannot be brushed under the carpet. The onslaught at the Navy’s largest Airbase is bound to give sleepless nights to Pakistan’s military planners. Given the fact that it is located in what is assumed to be a highly secure area is only part of the problem. What is particularly worrisome is the apparent sophistication and planning behind the commando raid. The attack itself was marked by rocket bombardment and involved a highly trained assault team that easily infiltrated the site before purposefully attacking the aircraft.
This takes on greater significance when one considers the shocking vulnerability of Pakistan’s prized defense assets. Given the venerable status of its Atlantique fleet, Pakistan’s anti-ship capability is now almost entirely dependant on the P-3C Orion. Costing a cool $36 million each (it is unclear whether this includes the cost of regular upgrades), they constitute a vital component of Pakistani naval strategy. In tandem with its powerful Harpoon missiles and ability to range out at will over the Indian Ocean, the Orion has a significant edge over its Indian counterparts and represents the only genuine counter to India’s naval preponderance.
But the most potent and expensive of warplanes are powerless against any threat while stationary on the ground. Furthermore, the incident is marked by more than a passing resemblance to a spectacular raid conducted by the Tamil Tigers against the Katunayake Airbase in July 2001. The suicide mission destroyed twelve combat aircraft within minutes, nearly incapacitating the fledgling Sri Lankan Air force. The infiltrators then moved on the civilian side of the facility and blew up half the national air fleet.
While the attack on naval base was thankfully not as severe, we may be on the cusp of a disturbing escalation in terms of the targets being struck in the terrorist campaign. Militants seem to have come to a decision that they will hurt the military more if they target its assets in contrast to its personnel. This is a breathtaking move not only in terms of audacity but also in terms of the damage inflicted on the military as an institution. The concept of strategic balance in the context of regional rivals becomes even more fluid, when this factor is considered. Pakistan’s most vital defense installations are apparently exposed and the danger posed is dire.
Take for example, the potential arms that militants could deploy in the near future. In terms of the defense of Pakistan’s airbases, a very major threat comes in the form of the Anti Material Rifle (AMR), a large caliber sniper rifle which fires an armour piercing round designed to disable armoured vehicles. Coupled with a telescopic sight, it allows the user to disable a military aircraft, hitting vulnerable sections such as the engine with devastating accuracy from a mile away.
If for example, a PAF airbase is subjected to a similar attack, terrorists armed with these rifles will have Pakistan’s precious F-16s or AWACs at their complete mercy and all for the cost of a few bullets. This nightmare scenario becomes even more plausible when we consider that such rifles have proliferated and are now being produced not only in China, Russia and the US but also by as unlikely candidates as Azerbaijan, Croatia, Hungary and most worryingly, India.
There also seems to be a lack of planning with regards to handheld surface to air missiles (SAMs). These potent weapons are designed to home in on the infrared signature of an aircraft which is most exposed when it is either landing or taking off. A major shortcoming of the system is its limited range. But this disadvantage is negated by the fact that a majority of defense installations are located in densely populated areas often at the behest of military authorities that create lucrative housing schemes in the first place which are disturbingly close to sensitive sites.
Hopefully, this attack will serve as a wake up call for the military to drastically beef up the security of its facilities taking into consideration non-conventional threats. Merely taking precautionary measures such as storing the Orions in hardened air shelters (HAS) with limited access which would have gone a long way in reducing the disastrous impact of the raid. Given the cost to the public entailed by the procurement of such prohibitively costly equipment, there needs to be firm commitment not limited to meaningless cant. It is time to up the ante; the militants have drastically raised their game, it is time for us to do the same.