The attack on the naval base in Karachi on Monday heaped further humiliation on a military already stunned by the killing of Osama bin Laden on its territory, and raised further doubts about Pakistan’s ability to confront militancy. The brazen assault on the headquarters of the naval air wing in Karachi fuelled fears about the Taliban’s growing capacity to stage attacks and the military’s shrinking ability to control extremists – both inside and outside its own ranks.
“It’s a complicated situation, a paradox,” said Kamran Bokhari, Middle East and South Asia director for global intelligence firm STRATFOR. “On the one hand, you’ve got elements within the security establishment that are helping the militants and at the same time, the militants are attacking that same security establishment.” Pakistan’s military has been on the back foot since US special forces killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden on May 2, unable to explain either why they had been unable to catch the world’s most wanted man themselves nor why the Americans could launch a raid deep into their territory undetected. The Pakistani Taliban, however, are on a roll.
Their spokesmen promised to sow chaos and avenge the killing of Osama. Monday’s spectacular attack in Karachi shows that they are making good on their promises. The attacks are likely to further deepen the US concerns and suspicions about Pakistan as a reliable partner in its war against militancy, with no clear answer to the question of whether the Pakistan military is incompetent in fighting militants or complicit with them. STRATFOR’s Bokhari said it was obvious that Monday’s attackers had inside help, suggesting that elements of the military, at least, are turning against the state as it comes under unprecedented pressure to roll up the militant networks.
“It is not possible for people with no familiarity with the military establishment to be able to carry out such an attack. Like in Rawalpindi, the militants had inside facilitators who provided access,” he said.
In October 2009, a similarly small raiding party of Pakistani Taliban attacked the army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, taking 42 people hostage, including several senior and junior officers. By the end of the day-long ordeal, nine gunmen, 11 soldiers and three hostages were dead.
As far back as 2006, the Pakistani military had to deal with extremist sympathisers in its ranks, with a leaked US State Department cable revealing monthly reports of “acts of petty sabotage” to Pakistan’s fleet of F-16s in an attempt to keep them from being deployed in support of operations in Pakistan’s tribal badlands to the northwest. Pakistan’s powerful military intelligence agency has long cultivated ties with the Haqqani network, the violent faction based in North Waziristan, in its lawless tribal belt that Washington blames for fuelling the insurgency across the border in eastern Afghanistan.
“This attack must be a wake up call for the government, particularly the military, who apparently has indulged in little cost benefit analysis about its relations with the Haqqani network,” said Imtiaz Gul, the author of “The Most Dangerous Place” a book on Pakistan’s lawless frontiers. Gul says the Pakistani military believes that Haqqani network “doesn’t touch us, therefore, we don’t touch them”. However, he said, the Haqqani network harbours militants attacking the state.
“If the government and military find incriminating evidence that connects the attacks with militants hiding in North Waziristan” – where the US States has been demanding an offensive against the Haqqanis – “I hope they will swiftly move to neutralise those elements,” he said. That’s unlikely, Bokhari says. He expects an intensification in offensives, but not in North Waziristan, because “the military don’t want to make more enemies than they already have,” and “don’t want to be seen as doing the US bidding.”
As for the civilian government, it looks like it is missing yet another opportunity to take advantage of the weakened position of the military, which has ruled Pakistan for about half of its 64-year history.
Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has called an “emergency” meeting of the Defence Committee, but there’s little sense of urgency. The meeting is on Wednesday, fully two days after the showdown in Karachi. The civilians missed a similar opportunity after the Osama bin Laden raid to bring the military, which controls foreign policy and national security, to heel.
“The political government is totally paralysed,” said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a political analyst. “They have different priorities. Their priorities are to get approval for the budget, make new alliances. The war on terror is not their priority; they have handed over everything to the army.”
