The dastardly suicide attack on Shabqadar Fort, killing scores of Frontier Corps recruits, brings the conundrum facing the Pakistani state into sharp focus. Who is the existential enemy: the United States, terrorism or both?
We are vociferously debating to affix responsibility for the intelligence failure over Osama bin Laden’s abode in Abbottabad and our security establishment’s incompetence in not having real time knowledge of the US attack on Waziristan House. However Al-Qaeda and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have given their verdict by attacking the army’s recruiting center.
One can debate whether the attack on a training facility of the army in the heart of the militants’ stronghold was another security lapse. Retaliation from the Taliban was expected as they had put the Pakistan Army on notice on the very day Osama was killed. Hence, the poor recruits who lost their lives were sitting ducks.
It seems the dust is not going to settle easily in the post-Osama scenario. Pakistan is in all kinds of trouble. The US has increased its pressure manifold while voices for the accountability of the army and intelligence agencies have reached a crescendo internally.
The main opposition leader Mian Nawaz Sharif has gone to town castigating the security establishment for its real or perceived incompetence. While rejecting the military’s own probe in the matter, he has demanded a judicial inquiry headed by the Chief Justice of Pakistan himself.
His demand in the form of an ultimatum is unlikely to be met. In this tense atmosphere, it is doubtful that the Zardari-led PPP government will make any moves that can trigger a clash of institutions.
In the past, moves to make the military accountable have resulted in disastrous consequences for civilian governments. The best example is Nawaz Sharif himself who fell victim to Musharraf’s Kargil misadventure.
The PML(N) supremo, who has the unsavoury record of not getting along with any of the army chiefs while in power, has questioned the role of the military dating right back to the coup d’etat of General Ayub Khan. Being a protégé of General Zia-ul-Haq, it is a strange but welcome transition.
His deep analysis of the malaise of the Pakistani state structure is spot on. No one disagrees with the sacrosanct principal of civilian control over the armed forces – a sine qua non for democracy. However in the eyes of those at the helm of affairs, it is an idea whose time has not yet come.
Most in the PPP-led coalition must be deriving vicarious satisfaction from the stance taken by the PML(N). In terms of power politics, it completely alienates the military establishment from the Sharifs. Those elements in the army or its intelligence hierarchy harbouring any hopes to destabilise the present set up would be gravely disappointed with the Sharifs’ recalcitrance.
There are voices in the media who smell blood and want the military cut down to size. In their perception, its leadership is under immense pressure and considerably weakened by the Abbottabad debacle. Hence, this is the time to strike.
As yesterday’s terrorist attack has amply demonstrated, the killing of Bin Laden might have scorched the snake, not killed it. On the contrary, the terrorists are alive and kicking and smelling blood. More incidents of the kind can be expected. Hence moves that can weaken the military’s resolve to fight terrorism should be resisted.
This does not mean that the army should not set its house in order and thwart moves for accountability. The Abbottabad incident has left it vulnerable on grounds of incompetence as well as complicity. A pervasive sense of insecurity about its ability to protect its citizens as well as strategic assets has also permeated.
The military’s strategic paradigm and even its mindset are being increasingly called into question. Being seen as more and more distinct and alienated from the civilian entity is damaging for its image and, more importantly, for its force de frappe.
Most political parties, with the exception of the religious right, no longer share the military’s strategic goals. The PML(N) being a product of the establishment was always considered to be pro-establishment. As evidently clear from Nawaz Sharif’s recent fulminations, no longer so.
Apart from PML(N), the ruling coalition comprised of PPP, PML (Q), ANP and MQM want friendly ties with India more than our strategic handlers including the so-called paragons of national interest in the media will allow.
Notwithstanding the myopic reaction shown by the Indians to the Abbottabad incident, the need to reset the matrix of relations is being increasingly felt. Buyers of the strategic depth theory are being decimated in the wake of terrorists’ attacks within the country.
Demands to go after their safe havens in the badlands of Pakistan are increasingly gaining currency. The fact that Osama was holed up a stone’s throw away from Kakul military academy has badly discredited the logic often given by the army that any operation in North Waziristan would scatter the terrorists all over the country. They are already spread all over Pakistan with or without the knowledge of our security agencies.
Even though no earth shattering disclosures were expected in the in camera briefing by the military hierarchy in the joint session of the parliament, Nawaz Sharif should have attended it nonetheless. His press conference after two days of deliberations was a strong denouncement of the army and its intelligence apparatus. Hence, in all fairness, he should have heard their point of view as well.
To repair the increasingly frayed relations between Washington and Islamabad is going to be a challenge. Ironically both countries as well as their defence establishments need each other.
The US not only needs Pakistan for its uninterrupted supply route but also for the endgame in Afghanistan. Despite the trust deficit, it is only the Pakistan Army that can nab the high profile Al-Qaeda and Taliban operatives within the country.
Navy SEALS operations, like the one conducted in Abbottabad, have a possibility of high rate of failure. This time, President Obama was lucky despite the 45 to 55 percent odds. Next time could be different. In any case, the operation has put our establishment on notice: you clean up the mess or we will do it despite all the appended complications.
The government needs Washington’s largesse for its economic survival and the military for its expensive toys. China is a friend in need and its diplomatic, economic and military support has been of tremendous help. But despite the relationship being “as high as the Himalayas and as deep as the Indian ocean”, it still has its limitations.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.