The fact that the unilateral US action of May 2, a grave infringement of Pakistan’s sovereignty, spanned over one-and-a-half hour of activity that went un-noticed, has raised serious doubts about our alleged ‘incompetence’ or ‘complicity’. On the one hand, questions are being asked about the state of our defence expertise and on the other hand, it has also exposed the chinks in the over-blown balloon of cohesion among various national institutions responsible for safeguarding our political and security frontiers.
In over a week since the operation, the government has parented one bloomer after the other, each more apologetic and more absurd than the previous one. For a while, it credited itself for having provided the intelligence that made the operation possible. Then, it raised the bogey of the US having let down an ally with a track record of monumental financial and human sacrifices. When even that could not cool down an increasingly agitated public mind, it finally conceded that there are strong anti-US feelings among the people. The prime minister has even acknowledged that the cooperation between the ISI and CIA has ceased.
At the other extreme stands PML(N). After a protracted debate in its CEC, the party has come up with yet another of its incessantly-failing “do it, or…” mantra to national issues. Rejecting a probe under a senior serving army officer, it has called upon the government to constitute a judicial commission. It has given the government three days for constituting such a commission and another twenty-one days to the commission to come up with its findings. In the event the government fails to do so, it has threatened to come up with a future course of action. It appears to be a re-enactment of its familiar “beginning with a roar, ending with a whimper” syndrome.
President Zardari’s strategy seems clear. Officially, the government appears eager to defend the army and the intelligence agencies as is reflected in the statements by the prime minister on the floor of the house, but its busy-bees – the ones who have the president’s confidence – are privately accusing the very same institutions for the debacle. In this pursuit, they applaud, even provoke Nawaz Sharif who still has not been able to drive the anti-army venom from his mind for having de-seated him in October, 1999. So, in reality, the two sing the same song: cut the army down to size! The only difference is that while the one is doing do brazenly, the other does so stealthily. The question is that, when the world is clamouring for their blood, will an attack on the security institutions serve our national interest?
The obvious intelligence failure coupled with the nature of the operation and the egg that has been consequently plastered heavy over their faces has put the army under considerable pressure. Understandably, its various echelons would be looking inwards in an intensive and extensive effort to eliminate the weak areas, but it is the loss of public faith that would be extremely disturbing for its commanders. Its stance during the incumbency of the present government has been exemplary. It has said a firm no on numerous juicy occasions along the way when the throne was there for the taking. Now, faced with the reality of a scathing and unprecedented attack, both open and not so open, how will it react? I understand it can happen in two possible ways.
So far, the army is believed to have exerted a sobering influence on the judiciary that, on various occasions in the recent past, and for all the right reasons, seemed resolute in coming up with damning adjudications for the sitting president and his government. That may create serious issues for the government as it would be faced with the twin-prospect of damnation: it would be weakened enormously if it opts to obey the injunctions which could even lead to its fall. In the event it opts not to comply, it faces the prospect of being forced to do so vide article 190, or being held for contempt of court. The judgement of the Lahore High Court (LHC) regarding the two offices of the president may be an indication of the things to come.
But, the army could also respond with a more pro-active approach by becoming a player in putting things right in the country – a fear that has driven Nawaz Sharif to continue providing relief to decidedly the most corrupt and inefficient government in the history of the country. But, as the president has conceded on numerous occasions, it is part of an overall strategy to keep the corridors of power confined to the two largest parties as currently reflected in the parliament. With another smart one played by Zardari, that balance seems seriously jolted with the induction of the PML(Q) in the government and the PML(N) chief may no longer enjoy the same leverage in national political affairs. It is just the natural culmination of rank bad politics by the PML(N) leadership for which it can only blame its own myopic advisers.
In the fast shifting political landscape, the role of smaller political parties and groups, both inside and outside the parliament, may assume greater importance. Imran Khan has taken courageous and principled positions on the grave issues that the country is confronted with. He enjoys increasing support across the national spectrum, particularly among the youth. He seems to be re-crafting his party to move to the centre-stage. He is also understood to have the support of the nationalist groups who respect him for his integrity and purposefulness.
While the army may be forced to playing a role for a change, it is through Imran Khan that the dream of the elusive alternate leadership may actually materialise. He has to weigh his political options correctly and play his cards wisely.
The writer is a political analyst. He can be reached at [email protected]
