What is to come

India has been after the US for two years to give it a copy of their investigative report on the Mumbai attacks. But the US kept hedging. They didn’t want to give Pakistan a reason to quibble. But after the Abbottabad operation, the Americans have wasted no time to hand over that part of the report to India which contains the names of the five Pakistanis who were allegedly, according to them, involved in the planning and execution of the Mumbai attacks. All the names are of ordinary citizens while one is that of Major Iqbal. Obviously, this must be a fake name. However, after the release of these names, it can be reasonably expected that India will give us the names of five more people they want us to nab and hand over.

The exchange of this information at this juncture doesn’t warrant much deliberation. The Americans conducted the Abbottabad operation under the understanding that OBL is their declared target and Pakistan, as an ally in the war against terror, has the responsibility to apprehend him and hand him over. But when they saw that Pakistan categorically denied the presence of OBL in the country when he was in fact safely ensconced in Abbottabad, their distrust deepened. Before this, when drone attacks were conducted after mutual collusion, America had the constant complaint that some targets escaped because they had been informed beforehand. After this, the US desisted from giving us any information and acted of its own accord on secret intel. Why would the situation be any different in the case of the prime target: OBL?

This is why Pakistan was not informed about the operation. The CIA Chief has said that there was a likelihood that OBL would have been helped to escape if Pakistan had been clued in about the operation. Which is why the utmost secrecy was maintained. Our media and government have declared this a violation of our sovereignty. The US has damaged no Pakistani assets and targets. All they did was apprehend their criminal and take him back, dead or alive. They didn’t destroy any bridge, decimated no building and demolished no bunkers. It was a ‘peaceful’ operation, done clandestinely. But Pakistan was taken into the loop once the operation was underway. When the news was broken to the world, Pakistan should have clarified that this operation was conducted covertly by the US as its ally, but Pakistan was informed once the operation started and that the Americans did nothing except seize their target. This reaction would have allowed the government to distance itself from extremists and the apologists and political supporters of these extremists would not have had the leverage to take an anti-US stance, positioning themselves in favour of the extremists and stoking anti-American sentiment in the country. Obviously, this reaction wasn’t quite expected by the US.

Now the Americans have probably decided to unequivocally address the antagonism found in Pakistan. No wonder American officials are now clearly stating that if any terrorist is purported to be in Pakistan, the US will not hesitate to conduct a similar operation. The implication being that the operation which was conducted as an ally and a friend will now be conducted unilaterally, if the need so arises. And if Pakistan resists, they will be fully prepared to deal with it accordingly. Not that they weren’t prepared to do it during the Abbottabad operation. If there had been any resistance from Pakistan’s side, God forbid, then American aircraft carriers and its state of the art aircrafts present at Afghan bases would have retaliated quickly. It was for the better that they got their target and left because the possibility of a confrontation had horrific implications.

But the danger hasn’t been averted. Such operations will definitely take place in the future as many wanted terrorists are rumoured to be hiding in Pakistan. If this state of tension isn’t ameliorated, then the situation will deteriorate further. There are reports of America having finalised plans to round up Mullah Omar. It has also been clearly stated that a surgical operation will be conducted when and where Ayman al-Zawahiri is found. Up till now, Pakistan and the US have been acting together against terrorists. But events have taken such a turn that action against terrorist will now be perceived as aggression against Pakistan which will by default pitch us against the US as ‘supporters’ of these terrorists. Then, the US will mete out the same treatment to us as it does to these elements. This will be an indefensible position. In a situation like this, there is no doubt that the international community will support the US and we will be painted with the same brush as the terrorists.

There is still time to initiate negotiations at every level so that we can come up with a new strategy against terrorism. The state of distrust that is now prevalent between the US and Pakistan should be mitigated and there should be concerted efforts to restore an environment of mutual trust and Pakistan should play its part in solving the problems in Afghanistan. If tensions keep escalating, there is no doubt that things will go from bad to worse. Our budget is being drafted with the help of IFIs. Our resources are getting scarcer by the minute. If there is confrontation with the US, it will inevitably affect the flow of foreign aid and our economy, already weakened, will be further emaciated.

We should also keep in mind that there is a lot of concurrence between India and the US with regards to the presence of terrorists in Pakistan. Thus far, America had been fighting its own case. It wasn’t taking up any Indian cause. But the list of alleged terrorist involved in the Mumbai attack that has been handed over to India by the US indicates that their might be combined pressure by the two on Pakistan to take action against them. I doubt we can take this pooled pressure.

The attitudes of India and the US can also be adjudged by the fact that PM Manmohan Singh is scheduled to visit Afghanistan in the upcoming days. Even if this tour isn’t the express wish of the US, it surely enjoys its blessings. We should size up our policies and strategies in light of what is to come. We don’t want a repeat of 1971: a situation where we stand isolated and alone with the world united against us.

The writer is one of Pakistan’s most widely read columnists.