While Osama bin Laden’s death may have little immediate impact on the Afghanistan war, it can bring a political solution by opening the door for Western talks with the Taliban, experts said. The killing of the al-Qaeda kingpin by United States (US) commandos could create enough political capital and space for foreign powers led by the US to “pivot towards a comprehensive political settlement”, as one academic put it.
US-led forces invaded Afghanistan with fanfare in the wake of the September 11 attacks, accusing the Taliban of harbouring bin Laden and other Al-Qaeda leaders. But the Western public hostility to the war has grown over the past decade amid mounting troop deaths in recent years. Some now question whether the war should continue now that bin Laden is dead. “I don’t think the death of bin Laden will directly impact the fighting capabilities of any of the parties engaged in the war in Afghanistan,” said Martine van Biljert of the Afghanistan Analysts Network think tank.
“Bin Laden’s death creates a new opportunity to begin real negotiations,” wrote Anne-Marie Slaughter, a former senior State Department official and current Princeton professor, in Foreign Policy magazine. The United States has made overtures to the Taliban in recent months about the reconciliation process. And soon after bin Laden’s killing, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the Taliban, “You cannot defeat us. But you can make the choice to abandon al-Qaeda and participate in a peaceful political process.”
However, despite such calls and the US’ rationale for launching the Afghanistan war nearly a decade ago, links between the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda are limited, argued Thomas Ruttig of the Afghanistan Analysts Network. “In jihadist terms, al-Qaeda concentrates on the far enemy, i.e. the US and its allies on their own soil, while the Taliban fight the near enemy, the occupiers of Afghan Muslim land,” Ruttig said.
He also indicated that elements within the militant Islamists already had an eye on talks with the West ahead of a possible return to power in the years ahead after foreign troops leave. “They (the Taliban) do not want to repeat their pre-9/11 mistake and risk complete isolation from the international community in case they return to power or participate in it at a time when Western interest in Afghanistan will have largely subsided,” he said.
