The power-sharing deal struck between the Chaudhrys of Gujrat and the PPP virtually changes the political landscape of the country. The PML(N), the erstwhile ally of the PPP has finally got what it has been striving for some time now: to be recognised as the real opposition rather than a “friendly opposition”.
It is the PML(N) which by showing the door to the PPP from the coalition in Punjab unwittingly paved the way for the ‘qatil league’ to join hands with its erstwhile nemesis. The leader of the opposition in the National Assembly Nisar Ali Khan has rightly criticised the formation of this alliance as the worse form of political opportunism.
But as they say, what is good for the goose is good for the gander too. After all, it was the PML(N) that set the ball rolling by inducting the so-called Unification Bloc in order to get rid of the PPP in Punjab.
Things have now come full circle. Forces, which were a creation of the dictator Musharraf to buttress his regime, have joined hands with those who ostensibly struggled for the restoration of democracy in the country.
Such are the vagaries of politics that the so-called Charter of Democracy (COD) signed by Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif with much fanfare in London in 2006 is now dead for all practical purposes. Political polarisation can lead to the zero-sum game played between the PPP and the PML(N) before Musharraf’s coup d’etat. The only saving grace is the pervasive desire to not invite the military in politics.
Sadly, the PML(N) is more to be blamed for the state of affairs. Its rank and file, seeing itself as the repository of the anti-Bhutto vote never felt comfortable with the PPP. Had it been left to Nawaz Sharif, the coalition might have survived but Shahbaz Sharif in the Punjab and his bosom buddy Nisar Ali Khan sabotaged all efforts for consensus politics.
So far as the present PPP lot is concerned, shorn of all ideological moorings, its natural instinct is to survive in power, come what may. In the sheer Machiavellian sense, Zardari has proved to be more than a match for his opponents. For the time being, he has been able to successfully checkmate his opponents.
As an outcome of the new alliance, the upcoming budget will be passed by the parliament without a major hiccup. Paradoxically, the PPP being constantly blackmailed by the MQM will now be in a better position to deal with its demands.
Both the PML(N) and the MQM representing the urban bazaar constituencies have been resisting any form of general sales tax (GST) as mandated by the IMF. The only way for the Fund’s stalled programme to move forward is by imposing taxes and removing subsidies in order to reduce the endemic circular debt and fiscal deficits. Unfortunately the proposed measures are unpopular with the political elite.
Apart from the passing of the budget, the incipient alliance has much wider political implications. Reportedly, the Chaudhrys have been assured a say in the delimitation of constituencies after the new census. This process would lead to gerrymandering detrimental to the interests of both the PML(N) in Punjab and the MQM in urban Sindh.
Unfortunately, the PML(N) has shrunk to becoming a central Punjab party. Mr. Zardari has thrown the gauntlet to challenge it in its core areas in the province in the next general elections. The PML(Q) under the tutelage of the wily Chaudhrys will be a formidable force to reckon with. With a strong candidate base and the trappings of power, the party would deal a strong hand to the PML(N).
In this age of alliances and compromises, it does seem quixotic for the PML(N) to daydream of a repeat of a “heavy mandate” in the next elections. With virtually no presence in Sindh, Balochistan and KP, it seems a tall order to expect a repeat of the 1997 elections. The PPP has grasped the ground realities much sooner.
The anxiety to take a solo flight is quite evident from the recent utterances of Nisar in the parliament. The leader of the opposition has behaved more like a bull in a china shop than a seasoned politician. He has alienated the MQM with vitriolic attacks, trashed the PPP and ANP and has gone after Imran Khan, branding him an ISI clone.
The Army and the ISI has been singled out for his wrath making the fantastic claim that an establishment midwifed alliance is being carved against the PML(N). Imran Khan has a point that it is a strange charge coming from a party formed under the tutelage of general Zia-ul-Haq.
Apart from the fact that Mian Nawaz Sharif has been blaming the ISI for interfering in recent by-elections in the Punjab for some time now, it is difficult to trace a method in the madness. A deep analysis and introspection is needed to reset the moorings of the PML(N). The anti-Army party line could not have been calibrated without the Sharif’s’ blessings.
This cannot be said about the rank and file, which is privately critical of the poor performance of its leadership in Punjab and baffled by the antics of the leader of the opposition. If the PPP coalition has failed to deliver at the federal level, Mian Shahbaz Sharif by his shoddy performance has not earned any brownie points either.
Mian Nawaz Sharif soon due back from London after recuperating from a heart complication will have to take charge rather than ensconcing himself in the comfortable and serene environs of Raiwind. He recently spoke to President Zardari about holding mid-term elections.
It is unlikely that the PPP, if it has its way, would yield to holding elections before the senate elections due March next year. But even if elections were held before that, is the PML(N) in a position to win them single handedly?
It is unfortunate that as far as politics in the country is concerned, it has been brought down to the lowest common denominator. Nevertheless, the reality is that the PPP has an upper hand in this round. The PML(N) has yet to get its act together.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.