It is quite obvious that for some time now Pakistan-US relations have been on the skids. The US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen who is reputed to have cordial relations with General Kayani had no qualms in blaming the ISI for propping up the Haqqani network in North Waziristan during his recent visit to the GHQ.
It is obvious that Washington is exerting full pressure on the Pakistan Army to move against terrorist safe havens in its badlands .The excuse that the Army is already overstretched no longer seems acceptable. A thaw in persistent drone attacks by the CIA has also been linked to flushing out the militants from N Waziristan.
Washington is also not willing to make the distinction that the Pakistani military establishment consistently makes between different militant groups. Terror outfits like Jamaat-ud-Daawa (JuD) and Lashkar-e-Tayabba are no longer considered India-specific or any different from the Al-Qaeda or TTP.
Another spanner, which has been thrown in the works, is to give India a role in Afghanistan. Mike Mullen spoke of close collaboration between India, Pakistan and Afghanistan to combat terrorism in a recent interview.
The India factor in Afghan talks was reportedly discussed during President Asif Ali Zardari’s recent visit to Turkey. According to some reports, his Turkish interlocutors were not entirely averse to such a role for New Delhi.
It was immediately after the Ankara talks that Prime Minister Gilani, General Kayani and General Shuja Pasha rushed to Kabul for talks with Karzai. Although both sides have agreed to set up a “joint peace commission” to combat the Taliban, it will not be enough to counter growing Indian influence in the region with a little help from Washington and Kabul.
It is quite obvious that Washington is using all levers to pressurise Islamabad. It sees India as a stabilising factor in the region and, slowly but surely, it has become its more reliable strategic partner. Obviously, this is red rag to the generals in GHQ who consider India as the mother of all evils.
Our civilian leaders probably do not share this perception. However, they have no option but to fall in line. Hence any solution that does not keep India at bay will not be acceptable to Islamabad.
Another bone of contention is the presence of a large numbers of CIA agents and their out-sourced operatives like Raymond Davis in Pakistan. Their presence is symptomatic of the trust deficit between the ISI and the CIA.
Washington wants to penetrate the LeT and JuD outfits on its own terms. It no longer trusts the ISI (or elements of it) to keep its streets safe. In this context, the US perception of collusion between these terror outfits and the ISI is highly dangerous.
Are the Americans playing “chicken” with Pakistan, as they are about to enter the crucial stage of drawing down from the Afghan imbroglio? Pakistan has a sense of its strategic importance in the region. Its location gives it a certain leverage to be part of any Afghan solution. Logistics also entail a certain dependence on the Pakistan Army for access to Afghanistan.
However Islamabad cannot overplay its hand. Its fragmented polity, lack of governance and a deteriorating economy does not give it much space to manoeuvre. Hence, in this staring contest, it is likely to blink first.
The IMF has delivered a tough message to Islamabad. The economic team headed by Finance Minister Dr Hafeez Sheikh has returned empty-handed. The Fund has done some plain talking asking Islamabad to move forward on the long-agreed Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST) and has demanded full implementation of all conditions related to the current standby programmes before it could release the suspended tranches.
The IMF, backed by Washington, wants taxation reforms as well as the removal of subsidies. It is a shame that Pakistan has one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios, even among developing countries. Its elite and the strong agriculture lobby in the parliament and provincial assemblies are loath to pay taxes.
With the level of governance at its lowest ebb and corruption at its highest, there is very little room for manoeuvrability. Since Pakistan is a security state, the military understandably wants an increase in its outlays not only for counter terrorism operations but to also have credible deterrence against India. Our ambitious missile programme is an additional burden on the exchequer.
The utter lack of consensus and absence of will to tighten belts amongst the political elite has made the country unable to sustain itself economically without consistent infusions of foreign assistance. With the growth rate hovering around two per cent, there is little hope for the country coming out of the economic quagmire anytime soon.
Another drone attack taking place post Mike Mullen’s departure along with the assurance from the US that Washington will provide $381 million as budgetary support under the Kerry Lugar Bill and $500 million from the coalition support fund means that the carrot-and-stick policy will continue.
Meanwhile, the budget making exercise as well as efforts to get the budget passed is in full swing. Political manoeuvrings to form a new political alliance that has even been dubbed as a “national government” in order to see the budget through have even resulted in concerted efforts by the president to bring PML (Q), erstwhile dubbed as ‘Qatil league’ on board. There are however skeptics who predict that the government will not be able to get its budget approved from the parliament.
It is actually the biggest challenge not only for the government but also for the country to kick-start the engine of economic growth which is not possible without a reform agenda. Whether the government has the capacity and the will to do so will again be put to test in the coming weeks.
Unless the country is on the road to economic revival, it will be virtually impossible to withstand pressure from Washington. But the Catch-22 is that Western largesse and IFI’s assistance is essential to revive the economy. Hence, for the time being, it seems improbable for Islamabad not to blink first.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.
