It is increasingly becoming clear that the Obama administration and Pakistani establishment visualise two different scenarios in Afghanistan in the days to come. Both are adamant on pursuing their clashing agendas.
The US wants a centralised government supported by 400,000 Afghan troops to look after the country’s internal security and defense. What is more, it also has plans to set up permanent US military bases in the country to look after its controversial interests in the region. This would be possible only if the US is able to ensure that Afghanistan is being ruled by a compliant government.
We are told that the ISI wants a much less centralised government in Kabul with no more than 100,000 troops under its command. This is presumably aimed at keeping Kabul permanently dependent on Pakistan. The Americans claim that the ISI wants to protect the Haqqani group of militants in North Waziristan as an asset that can be used to keep the Afghan government under its thumb.
The Haqqani group is an anathema to the US as it is charged with fuelling the insurgency in Afghanistan, financing, training and equipping the terrorists and being directly involved in attacking the US and allied troops. Admiral Mullen has made it amply clear that there could be no compromise over the Haqqani group. His other concerns include the present alliance between the Al-Qaeda, Taliban, LeT and JuD which has developed over the last three years turning Pakistan’s tribal areas into the epicentre of world terrorism.
Successive Pakistani regimes, both military and civilian, have sought strategic relations with the US. What they have forgotten is that seeking these types of ties with a super power tends to turn Pakistan into a pawn in the game of chess the US plays with its rivals. The relations between a big power and a small country can never be on an equal footing.
While working with the US, Pakistan’s establishment tends to develop super power illusions. It must not however be forgotten that Pakistan is a country with rampant poverty, widespread illiteracy and a fragile, agriculture-based economy depending mostly on the vagaries of nature. What it needs badly is a peaceful environment so that it can move ahead with its badly needed socio economic development.
Pakistan presently cooperates with the US in areas where its interests converge with those of the US. At this juncture, it is in the vital interests of Pakistan and US to destroy terrorist networks in the region. The establishment in Pakistan has in the past financed, trained and equipped terrorist groups to launch them into Indian-controlled Kashmir. This turned out to be a disastrous policy. The terrorists were subsequently to train their guns on their creators killing in the process more Pakistani soldiers than Indian troops while destabilising the country’s economy.
Pakistan needs to reconsider its Afghan agenda. It has to realise that no foreign country has ever succeeded in turning Afghanistan into its colony. Islamabad needs to cultivate friendly ties with whatever government is in power in Kabul. This has to be done through a display of soft power rather than military might. It should be for the Afghan people to decide whether they want to a have a heavily centralised government or a loose federation. Any formula imposed from outside by the US or Pakistan would simply fail to deliver. Similarly, it should be left to the Afghan government to decide how big an army the country needs. Kabul is soon bound to discover that maintaining a 400,000 strong army, consuming several times more finds than generated by the county every year through taxes, is an untenable proposition. But any advice in this regard would be as offensive to the Afghans as a suggestion of the kind to Pakistan from the US or India.
Pakistan has enough economic and social leverage to ensure that whosoever is in power in Kabul remains friendly. Islamabad can win over Afghanistan through more economic incentives, joint ventures, better transit facilities, and exchange of students and of cultural delegations. Islamabad has however got to drop the idea of turning Afghanistan into its fifth province.
Pakistan must not however be seen to be in any way supportive of the idea of bases for the US in Afghanistan. In case Washington really decides to set up the bases, it would send alarm bells ringing throughout the region. Russia, China, and Iran would have reasons to be highly perturbed over the move.
The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.