We should be thankful to the cricket teams of Pakistan and India for providing an occasion to the Prime Ministers of both countries to come together. While in the strict diplomatic sense, the get-together could be called conversation rather than talks, what is notable is that both Prime Ministers termed the tryst positive and Manmohan Singh called for burying the hatchet and underlined the need for permanent reconciliation. The meeting has to lead now to structured dialogue to give practical shape to the wishes expressed.
Both countries need peace and cooperation. Both carry the burden of a backlog of problems. With the spirit prevailing at Mohali, it might become possible to resolve the disputes step by step.
In the short term, terrorism is the biggest problem the two countries face. The animosity between them has helped in the spread of the phenomenon. Military rulers in Pakistan promoted it by raising a large band of cheap and dispensable proxies to bleed the Indian army. The cost that Pakistani society and defence forces had consequently to bear has brought out the folly of the experiment. Thousands of innocent Pakistanis have been killed in terrorist attacks while the terrorists have inflicted more losses on the Pakistan Army than on their intended targets in India.
The worsening of relations between the two countries has helped a section of politicians in India to indulge in anti-Pakistan hype while a hawkish section of the Indian media has chimed in. Both have, over the years, contributed to the nurturing of extremism in India. Consequently, India has developed a pernicious strain of homegrown extremists who in turn have encouraged the growth of saffron terrorism. The Samjhota Express tragedy is among their several handiworks. This combined with the Naxalities and terrorist outfits of a nationalist character are threatening the integrity of the Indian state.
In the long term, there are other formidable issues of an existential nature that cannot be resolved except through cooperation. Both countries face shortage of water. If left unresolved, this could lead to wars and destruction and still remain unresolved. Conversely, the two countries can make joint plan to manage the shortages and make the best use of whatever is available. Environmental changes have also started affecting the weather cycles in South Asia. Unless there is cooperation between Pakistan and India, where a majority of the population depends directly and indirectly on agriculture, disastrous environmental changes can wipe out a lot of what has been built at great expense and sacrifice.
The economies of the two countries stand to gain from cooperation. It is widely understood that SAARC has failed to realise its potential of sizeable regional trade on account of Pak-India animosity.
Business between the countries drifted to the sidelines particularly after the Mumbai attacks. With normalisation of trade relations, both stand to be in a win-win position.
A point in the propaganda by the anti-India lobby in Pakistan is that the country would be flooded with Indian goods while Pakistan will have noting to sell. This is altogether incorrect. Pakistan has a number of commodities for the Indian market, cement being one
Cement plants in Pakistan have a huge unrealised capacity and can hardly sell half of their production particularly on account of the reduction in government spending. India on the other hand suffers from a cement shortage and cement with inferior quality is being sold at rates higher than in Pakistan. India, meanwhile, needs almost 10 million tonnes of cement annually to meet increasing demand spurred by strong economic growth. For India, Pakistan is the most competitive source of supply on account of physical proximity that reduces transportation charges.
Similarly, a fairly developed Pakistani fabric industry can also target Indian market on account of similarities in sartorial fashions in the two countries. With prominent Hindu and Sikh shrines in Pakistan, the country could turn into a big destination for Indian pilgrims and tourists. This would in turn benefit Pakistans hotel industry.
The first step that needs to be taken is to give the most favoured nation (MFN) status to India. Whatever little bilateral trade currently takes place between the two countries is routed through third countries such as Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong. This raises the cost of business. What is required is opening of the Wagah trade route.
The measures would give a boost to trade. Recent estimates suggest trade could be in the range of $3 billion to $10 billion compared with less than $400 million annually. In other words, only 4 percent to 13 percent of the potential bilateral trade is being exploited.
With travel restrictions relaxed and economic relations strengthened, enough social pressure would come into existence to keep hawks on both sides at bay.
The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.
