I dont know on what basis many dignified commentators and expert analysts were speculating that an informal meeting between the two Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan during a cricket match could bring a significant change in bilateral relations. Different arguments were being forwarded for this. Some people were saying that PM Singh is under extreme fire from the BJP and that his position has weakened extremely and he was using this invitation to escape from his position of vulnerability. The same thing was being said by PM Gilani, i.e., he is under extreme pressure from the opposition and has accepted this invitation as an escape route. He will use this trip to include opposition leaders in his delegation and use it as a pretext to meet and greet them.
Another circle is of the view that such informal meetings never lead to noteworthy breakthroughs. It is an exercise in futility. In reality, these analyses are being done when a breakthrough has been achieved. That was during the meeting of the interior secretaries of the countries. The results of those negotiation have come to the fore and it was decided by the two sides to establish a hotline against terrorism. Delegations will be exchanged to investigate the Mumbai attacks and India will provide the most recent report on the investigation of the Samjhota Express tragedy to Pakistan. Investigative authorities of both countries, i.e., FIA and CBI will negotiate regarding human trafficking, terrorists activities across the border and fake currency notes.
The joint declaration issued at the end of these two-day talks expressed the satisfaction that the talks took place in a friendly and cordial environment. These talks will take place biannually between the interior secretaries. An anti-terrorism hotline will be established from both sides to deal with timely exchange of information to prevent the menace of terrorism. An extremely important breakthrough is that judicial commissions of both countries will be facilitated for investigating the Mumbai attacks in both the countries. We have agreed to let the Indian commission visit Pakistan and India will also notify the Pakistan commission of its visiting dates soon.
My question is that when any obstacles in the way of comprehensive dialogues have already been removed in the meeting of the secretaries, what is a breakthrough if not this?
The biggest hindrance in composite dialogue and the major reason for delay were the events of Mumbai. It was a precondition on Indias part that talks will only be resumed if Pakistan agrees to conduct investigations against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks and India will be allowed to participate in them. Whereas Pakistans condition was that it be notified of the results of the Samjhota Express incident investigations. Both the countries were adamant in their refusal of these conditions. Now, both countries have agreed to exchange information with regards to big terrorist events and to establish mutual co-operation in their investigations.
Outright acceptance was avoided and diplomatic appearances were kept up as is appropriate and fitting given the history of the relations between the two countries. But all the things discussed between the secretaries represent the fundamental impediments which were obstructing the resumption of talks. Another thing to consider is that if such high-profile matters were to be discussed, why the need for such low-profile negotiations?
This is the basic point which I want to express my views about. If these matters were taken up at the highest level, then the reaction they couldve precipitated would also have been proportionately higher. If the situation is examined closely, one can see that both India and Pakistan have reconsidered their positions. India has relived its immutable stance and has agreed to the bilateral exchange of commissions. This will help in creating the impression that the architects of the Mumbai attacks are being pursued.
Pakistan has also gotten its demands regarding the Samjhota Express accepted. But we have also accepted tacitly that the Mumbai attacks had some connections within Pakistan. Why else would an Indian commission be given the permission to visit Pakistan for judicial investigations regarding the attacks? They are not coming here to inspect illegal weapons. Everybody knows what happened in the Mumbai attacks. Everybody knows that the alleged perpetrators had Pakistani connections. Not only did Pakistan conduct investigations in the light of Indian dossiers but also apprehended a few criminals which India had nominated such as Maulana Lakhwi and Hafiz Saeed. The latter was released by the courts.
It is obvious that the real deals were struck in a hushed manner even before the two Prime Ministers met informally at the semi-final where both sides were in the grips of cricket mania. The media of both countries was single-mindedly focusing on the match between the two countries. Nobody had the time or inclination to consider whether any breakthroughs were achieved in this low-profile meeting.
Lets now consider in what way extremist forces will appraise this agreement. Will Indias hardliners digest the fact that talks have been resumed when only commissions have been exchanged and none of the accused have been nabbed? On the flipside, will Pakistans extremist fringe accept that an Indian commission has been allowed to visit Pakistan to investigate the involvement of the people it has named and which are allegedly from Pakistan? This, in effect, gives India the chance to claim that Pakistan has accepted its stance on the involvement of Pakistani elements in the attacks. These reactions will start properly when the two countries come out of the throes of the cricketing fever. If the agreement between the two interior secretaries is accepted, the follow-up will continue in the upcoming days discreetly and silently and then the announcement to recommence composite and formal talks will be made at the right time and place.
Even Pakistans Afghan policy has seen a big change in a quiet manner; that is we have decided to leave the war-ravaged country be and made the choice to put its own house in order. The losses that we have suffered in the past decade at the hands of terrorism have been more than the three wars with India had afflicted on us combined. Our economy is in tatters. The little progress that was taking place is no more. We have had no funds available for education, health and other basic facilities for many years. Social structure and social fabric is completely topsy-turvy in Karachi, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Terrorist activities are on the rise in Punjab.
Uptill now, we had our energies centred on helping America in Afghanistan and neglected these very serious problems on the home-front. We were out aiding the US while our own home was on fire. Now it is increasingly apparent that we need to fix the problems at home instead of interfering in matters in foreign shores. It is because of this that we need to distance ourselves from the problems in Afghanistan and resume talks with India to find some kind of solution to the languishing issue of Kashmir. I wish these speculations of mine turn out be correct.
The writer is one of Pakistans most widely read columnists.
