THE REALITY CHECK – The Broader Perspective: Before the World Cup, no one was giving Pakistan a chance and here they are just three games away from winning the tournament. Sounds easy, but it is a mountain to climb – and a treacherous one at that. Up first is today’s quarterfinal against the West Indies.
Pakistan will be on a high after an encouraging win against Australia in their last group game. Against Australia, Pakistan played well as a unit with bowling and fielding clicking, but the batting was jittery, the successful run chase notwithstanding. Today, Pakistan batting would need to lift itself, and this should begin with the openers chipping in.
Even if they do, each of the rest will have to make their own substantial contribution. Younus Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq both disappointed against Australia with their poor shot selection. Both will have to lead the way given their experience. Asad Shafiq and Umar Akmal were good and will need to carry on from there.
Shahid Afridi is due for a big score and you can expect him to come good just when it matters like he did in the 2009 T20 World Cup semi-final and final. Bowling remains Pakistan’s main strength and Umar Gul will be leading the attack once again. However, given the surfeit of left-handers in the West Indian outfit, he would need to adjust his line and length.
Pakistan might also be deliberating at bringing in Shoaib Akhtar for Wahab Riaz, as the later hasn’t been as convincing as expected. Despite their losing the last two games to England and India, taking the West Indies lightly will be dangerous. Chris Gayle and Kemar Roach are expected to be back for West Indies while the islanders have also hinted at including seasoned Shivnarine Chanderpaul to give solidity to the middle order.
Much like Pakistan, the West Indies’ unpredictability remains their major strength as they can come good any day and hurt any opposition. Gayle, in his typically aggressive mien, can be a big threat to Pakistan even when not at his peak in terms of fitness. Kemar Roach has pace with the ball and Ravi Rampaul and Andre Russell also can hit the deck hard. Suleiman Benn can be miserly with his left-arm spin.
In the end, it will come down to how Pakistani batsmen fare against the West Indian bowlers. The Pakistani bowlers, it is a given, certainly have the ability to restrict West Indian batting to a manageable score. Overall Pakistan should shun complacency as the win over Australia is now in the past.
This is the knockout stage – lose and you go home, win and you go to Mohali for the semi-final against either Australia or India. Form Guide & Ground Conditions: Of the 114 ODIs between them, the West Indies have won 64 and Pakistan 48. But these statistics are deceptive: in the last 15 games, the Calypsos have got the better of Pakistan just three times.
The weather is expected to be clear for the day in Dhaka and a good batting strip will be in the offing, so the prospect of a high scoring encounter. The World Cup trend at this venue: win the toss, bat and post a big total.
Likely Playing Elevens
Pakistan: Hafeez, K Akmal (wk), Asad, Younis, Misbah, U Akmal, Afridi, A Razzaq, A Rehman, Gul, Wahab/Shoaib
West Indies: Gayle, D Smith, Bravo, Chanderpaul, Sarwan, Pollard, Thomas (wk), Sammy, Russell/Rampaul, Benn, Roach
Watch Out For: Shahid Afridi is a steadfast performer who knows exactly what he is doing in the middle with the ball. You can’t look past him in most games; the highest wicket taker of the event, very rarely gets slogged around the park. His batting hasn’t clicked but expect him to be up there now that the big games are here.
Gayle may have had a quiet time of late but he remains well-equipped to produce fireworks in the one-day game. He’s so strong that he can whack the ball out of most grounds, never mind just over the boundary. On his day he is as good as anybody up there and to fancy their chances Pakistan will have to remove him early.
Who Wins: If Pakistan keeps up the force level as they did against Australia and Sri Lanka, defeating West Indies shouldn’t be a problem. The West Indies have been inconsistent overall and that’s where Pakistan should target them. The smart bettor should be hedging 70-30 in Pakistan’s favour.
