According to a statement attributed to Pakistans Prime Minister the US-Pakistan relationship would not be affected by the case of a single individual. Media reports (not contradicted), however, stated that the US Congress had suspended aid to Pakistan under the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Bill as well as the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). The reason for this was that the single individual Raymond Davis was in a Pakistani jail for killing two Pakistanis. Beyond the single individual phenomenon, however, is the more important question of the future of the strategic US-Pakistan relationship. How important is this relationship for Pakistan and the US and what is its future?
There are several narratives that are worth considering. In the US both officialdom and public opinion the belief is that their ally Pakistan is supportive of the Afghan Taliban personified by the Haqqani network and the Lashkar Taiba (LeT) (forces that attack US/NATO/Afghan forces in Afghanistan) and that Pakistan only battles the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP that attacks Pakistan). Further that the Afghan Taliban operate from Pakistans FATA specifically North Waziristan against US/NATO forces in Afghanistan and that the LeT operates against India and the US (especially after some incidents indicated that besides a domestic agenda these forces had international ambitions). Americans consider another Times Square type event or Mumbai type event likely and think that that this could come singly or jointly from the TTP, the Haqqani network or the LeT. Indians generally support this belief and make it as credible as possible.
The US considers precision Drone strikes against targets identified by technical and human intelligence in Pakistans FATA as legitimate use of force and implies that these attacks are with Pakistani acquiescence. The US believes that its undercover agent Raymond Davis had diplomatic immunity and could not be tried in Pakistani courts for the murders he committed as he was acting in self defense regardless of the activity he was engaged in. After his release the US is not admitting that they paid compensation as that would negate their stance of diplomatic immunity. Predictably, in a charged environment, there is some street agitation in Pakistan over the Davis release. The US is critical of governance and law enforcement shortcomings in Pakistan and even as it extends financial support to Pakistan it exhorts it to increase revenues and build capacity.
The US blames Pakistan specifically its military and intelligence of duplicity in their policies and does not share Pakistani perception of a threat from India to its security. The mood in the US Congress is indicated by the remarks by lawmakers during the recent testimony by General Petraeus growing impatience with Pakistan and its policies. Periodically the US media and think tanks roll out fears about Pakistans nukes not being secured and radicalisation of Pakistani society.
In Pakistan there is the perception that the US does not trust Pakistan and operates unilaterally in Afghanistan and Pakistan with Drone strikes in FATA and covert operations within Pakistan. Pakistanis are not clear on US strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is a perception that the talk of political resolution in Afghanistan is a smokescreen for determined military operations to decisively defeat the Taliban (Senator McCain has suggested such a strategy to get Pakistan on board). The other perception is that a military victory is not possible therefore a political resolution is the only option for the US. The general belief is that the US will never leave Afghanistan and will only withdraw from active combat by remaining in their bases and pushing the Afghan Security Forces to do the fighting. There is talk of a US-Afghan government-India nexus that ensures space for India in Afghanistan. There is the perception that Afghan capacity will not be built up sufficiently for them to resist the Taliban thereby keeping southern Afghanistan and FATA (Pashtun majority areas) in turmoil with obvious implications for Pakistan. Pakistanis feel that the cost paid by them for siding with the US in the war in Afghanistan has never been fully appreciated and that the pressures on Pakistan and suspicions about its policies are unfair and that the real target is Pakistans nukes. The reported CIA-ISI standoff during the Davis episode confirmed fears in Pakistan that the US runs covert operations within Pakistan and that the military and ISI are seen as hindrances (a view also held by India) even as there is understanding that there is no other option but to work with and through them. The perception that 9/11 was an inside job to trigger a clash of civilisations has not gone away unfortunately 9/11 was followed by the axes of evil and crusades remarks that have also not been forgotten.
Besides these narratives there are some facts that need to be considered. The US would not push a nuclear armed nation of 180 million people towards radicalisation, destabilisation or balkanisation. Such a policy would create massive problems not just for the region but for the world. India would also have to be extremely short sighted to work on such a fate for Pakistan. Pakistanis consider their military, the ISI and strategic capacity as prime assets but, notwithstanding all the talk about mindsets, there is a full understanding of internal stability and economic viability in the context of national security and of diplomacy being exercised from a position of strength and not vulnerability. It is highly unlikely that under the present circumstances India would even contemplate deliberate premeditated aggression against Pakistan or that Pakistan would do anything to trigger a conflict.
It stands to reason that Pakistan, in its own interest, would do everything to establish its writ in ungovernable or marginally governed spaces to end conflict and the crime, violence and instability that it spawns. There is no doubt that Pakistanis want functional democracy, a government with governance capacity and access to education, health care and food. Pakistan wants to be seen positively and wants to be a part of the globalized world the relationship with the US has far reaching significance for it.
Duplicity, if any, would go away if strategies and the end results sought are clear. Pakistan would want to move towards threat reduction to focus on its economy. The Davis affair has brought out the fragility in the relationship and the pitfalls of not being on the same page at all levels government, military and intelligence. This is an opportunity to spell out a narrative based on facts and to give the US-Pakistan relationship substance and direction. The other option is to wait for another Davis or worse.
The writer is a former Chief of Army Staff. He is now associated with Spearhead Research.
