In the face of the public unrest being displayed in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and Libya, American-patronised establishments are now struggling to keep their loosening grips on power by bringing in new administrations and new faces. The agenda to keep the American establishment involved in power that the team of President Bush, Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice couldnt fulfill, the Obama administration is serving it very well. One can recall that before starting the war in Asia, these trigger-happy lot of rulers in the Bush administration were announcing that they wanted to establish democracy in the region along with other run-of-the-mill slogans about basic human rights, civil liberties, independent judiciary etc etc.
To further this agenda, offensives were launched; first on Afghanistan, then on Iraq. The attack on Afghanistan was premised on the fact that it was being done to root out Al-Qaeda whereas the pretext for the Iraq War was their supposed wielding of WMDs, the nuclear ambitions of their dictator Saddam and the threat that they posed to world peace. Both the expressed objectives were not fulfilled as they werent the real objectives. The ultimate objective was to establish US dominion over these territories. On Afghanistan, due to its strategic importance; on Iraq, due to its oil reserves, and to defang one of Israels nemesis. But these actions ultimately cost much more than expected.
The US had to wait for a long while before it could occupy Afghanistan. But it was beaten by the Soviet invasion. The rulers brought in to end the revolutionary government of Nur Muhammad Taraki were backed by the CIA with the help of Pakistan, a little known fact. Before America could tighten its claws around Afghanistan, the Soviet Union tried to put an end to American expansion by military action. The Soviet estimates about itself and the US, both proved wrong.
The US then aided the unconstitutional military government of Zia-ul-Haq to strengthen its foothold and used that as leverage to employ the might and prowess of the Pakistan Army against the Soviet Union. The US had no other way to conquer Afghanistan. The Soviet Union exercised considerable influence on the ruling classes of Afghanistan. Even though these classes were limited in size, they couldve cemented their government with the help of the Russians. But the US didnt let that happen. Instead, it established centres of guerilla training in our tribal areas and unleashed hordes of arms and money to aid the so-called jihad. Islam was the slogan of Zia in Pakistan and the slogan of America in Afghanistan.
There was a large number of Taliban in the religious madrassahs of Pakistan. Jihadi groups were then constituted of these Taliban and young Pakistani men. They were then trained and led by American and Pakistani instructors. The banner of Islam proved fruitful. Not only was it close to Afghan hearts, it was helpful in mobilising the people of the tribal regions of Pakistan. As the war progressed, all the renegade freedom fighters and criminals from Muslim countries, hiding out in European countries, were then transported to FATA for heavy remunerations and the decisive war between the two superpowers of that day and age then played out in Afghanistan.
The Soviet Union which was by then hollow economically, morally, administratively and institutionally, could not keep up with the war and had to call its armies back. Once rid of its antagonist superpower, the US no longer cared about Pakistan or Afghanistan. Maybe it didnt realise that the strategic makeup of the region could transform so rapidly.
The Iranian Revolution rose like a hurricane and spread around. For a couple of years, nobody could even discern what power was rising from the ashes. America thought that political leadership would end up in the hands of the supporters of democracy. But Banisadr, who became the leader of Iran proved too weak before the religious leadership and the rule ended in the hands of the mullahs. At the same time, India and China started progressing at an incredibly rapid speed. To deal with the ramifications of this, the US had to take many a big decision in its scrambling.
It established strategic relations with India. It started trade with China and as China grew economically, the quantity and quality of its arms grew as well. The US needed to attend to this developing situation immediately. And as the Iranian Revolution shaped up, Israel had to worry about its own skin as well and when Pakistan became a nuclear power, the same worry deepened. The situation changed so that Pakistan was now more strategically important than ever. The real reasons behind the occupation of Afghanistan was to be near China, to monitor Pakistans nuclear capabilities by having bases on its very own territory and to save the Israelis from the Iranians by having centres in their midst too. All these three objectives are being fulfilled. But the price that the US has had to pay was way beyond its expectations. People are saying that the US will pullout its troops according to the schedule it has given. But I think that because of the capital and human resources that the US has invested in Afghanistan, it will never evacuate at any cost. It will prepare a strong and armed ruling class in the country which can then protect its interests. Foreign forces will progressively lessen but they will be replaced by an educated and trained Afghan Army.
The reason for attacking Iraq was to have control over its oil reserves as well as to destroy the military power of the anti-Israel Baath Party and prepare new cadres of ruling classes. This process is underway with great speed. But the cost of the Iraq operation was similarly too high which is why the real ruling class of America i.e. the multinationals, grew wary of the militarily inclined administration of Bush and the Democrats won the elections. As soon as Obama came into power, he reopened those files of CIA projects which had been closed at the behest of powerful hawks in Pentagon. Obama had to face serious resistance from some of the remaining hawkish elements in the American Army which also had intentions like those of the Bush administration. Obama even had to kick out a very important general to deal with this resistance.
There are strong anti-US sentiments in many countries. In a shift away from previous policy, America now tried to set up governments and ruling classes that could placate the enflamed public as well as set up administrations that were not only acceptable to the public but would protect American interests. This happened without any considerable loss of lives in Egypt and Tunisia. A few faces were changed to transfer power to the military in Egypt. In Tunisia, the ruling class needed to be constructed from scratch and the process has begun. The same policy of bringing in such governments is now also underway in the rest of the countries mentioned.
The writer is one of Pakistans most widely read columnists.
