NEWS ANALYSIS – Pakistan Muslim League-N chief Nawaz Sharif finally announced his party’s split with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in Punjab on Friday. While certainly dealing a blow to the PPP and its recent reconciliatory efforts, the PML-N leader stopped short of announcing an all-out war against the PPP for the time being.
The message from Sharif’s press conference – where he announced the decision to part ways with the PPP, blaming President Asif Ali Zardari for leaving the PML-N with no choice but to end their coalition – was loud and clear: the PML-N is not looking to destablise the government or bring it down entirely any time soon.
Instead, Sharif wished the PPP well in the days to come, saying that he hoped PML-N’s decision to part ways would help improve the performance of the PPP government in future. Nawaz did not seem to be in favour of midterm elections either when he avoided a reporter’s question on the subject and said the party was keeping its options open at the moment. He did, however, say that it was not unconstitutional to demand midterm elections.
Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif and other PML-N leaders had met Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani on Thursday to tell him about the erstwhile impending decision. Sources told Pakistan Today that it was in that meeting that the leaders of both parties had assured each other that no attempt to destablise each other’s governments would be made. The PPP seems in no hurry to take extreme measures in Punjab, however, such as a no-confidence motion against the chief minister once its ministers are let go, meaning that the widening gulf between the two parties will likely not have any immediate impact on national politics.
It seems that the PML-N’s has made a politically expedient decision as a party bracing for elections sooner or later. Most political analysts and leaders have predicted elections by the end of the year or the beginning of the next. “The decision to split from the PPP in Punjab is the result of cool political calculations for future elections,” said a PML-N leader who wished to remain unnamed.
Political leaders and analysts believe that with the break-up of the PPP-PML-N coalition in Punjab, chances of any future political cooperation have also come to an end. Instead, they say, it will encourage a new political realignment in Punjab and elsewhere. Prospects of the various PML groups coming together have also received a setback after the recent clash between the PML-N and PML-Quaid-e-Azam, with the latter accusing the Sharifs of framing Monis Elahi in the NICL scam.
Certain forces in the PPP and PML-N are also in favour of seeing both parties united against Nawaz Sharif in Punjab. Elahi, too, has offered to join ranks with PPP’s Zulfiqar Mirza to form a joint opposition in the provincial assembly.
