For PML(N), it is a classic case of to be or not to be in Punjab. Close to the next elections, whether they are held early or on time, the party had to act to wash a lot of adverse comment that it had generated over the past three years by virtue of its policy of collaboration with the PPP. This support had been extended with the apparent intention of not destabilising the nascent system and also not repeating the debilitating environment of the eighties and the nineties.
After having come this far, the party had some options to choose from. First, it could continue being partners with the PPP in the province. This would naturally cause more political damage as it would be accused of being in cahoots with a party that has deviously thwarted the promulgation of the rule of law and done fairly little to eliminate the curse of corruption. Second, it could join hands with PML(Q) to establish a comfortable majority. This would be construed as tantamount to collaboration with forces, or remnants of forces, that had worked to establish and perpetuate Musharrafs dictatorship. Third, the party could opt for a fresh mandate in the province. This would reiterate the partys high moral ground and would also set a healthy democratic precedence with potential political dividends.
As it appears by reports and some circumstantial evidence, the party seems to be moving towards collaboration with the unification bloc comprising a majority of the sitting parliamentarians of PML(Q) in the provincial legislature. The members of the new bloc claim that, since they have forty-seven MPAs with them, they have a constitutional and moral right to form an independent parliamentary group. The same position, after being accepted by the speaker of the provincial assembly, is now a virtual reality, and would remain so till an adverse judgement either on the floor of the house or, more likely, before the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the courts. Interestingly, show-cause notices have been issued by the PML(Q) secretariat to only 15 of the 47 defecting MPAs. The party high command has also stressed that, upon receipt of responses, they would contact the ECP for further action against the defectors.
The battle for political turf in Punjab has begun in earnest. PML(N) claims to have consistently maintained a position based on principles since the last elections. In fact, it would be plausible to assume that PML(N) moved to a position of relative political alienation because of an uncompromising stand that it has consistently maintained with regard to these critical national issues.
Unfortunately, the constitutional and legal positions notwithstanding, the first victim of the proposed move in Punjab, if and when it goes through, would be the same high moral ground that PML(N) had so assiduously built. Constitutionally, there may be an argument for the formation of an independent parliamentary group carved out of another party, but it would have little moral defence which may tarnish the partys political credentials. The stigma of collaborating with remnants of dictatorship may also stick.
Ever since PML(N) presented its ten-point agenda for initiating reform in the country, PPP engaged the party closely, even showing some intent initially to comply. Ten sessions of the committees representing the two political parties were held over the last forty-five days and there were indications that some common ground may be carved out to move ahead. There were cynics though who maintained that PPP could not afford to initiate corrective measures as, in that event, the entire edifice of its corrupt government would come crumbling down.
Under the present circumstances, it could not honour all SC injunctions delivered to date including the one on NRO, appoint transparent management at all state institutions, remove the corrupt from all government tiers, take steps for the promulgation of the rule of law and set up an independent Election Commission and Accountability Bureau. Some went so far as saying that there was no need to have tried in the first place. Quite appropriately, therefore, when the 45-day deadline expired without any tangible result, the prime minister conveniently changed tack by saying that, instead of dealing with one political force only, he would engage the entire political leadership of the country to come to a consensus. He further stated that he would not be deterred by deadlines.
Now that there are indications that PML-N, focussed on long-term political objectives, may have opted for off-loading the PPP, there would be a lot of acrimony with accusations hurled across about the immorality and unconstitutionality of the move. That would effectively bury the cordial spirit that, more or less, had reflected the political culture over the last three years. There would also be some constitutional and legal battles initiated by PML(Q) that would be fully supported by the PPP.
On the broader scale, one of the two things may happen. If PML(N) finds the going rocky with its new-found ally, as it may well do, we could move towards early elections, at least in the province, may be throughout the country, sometime during the later part of this year. Or, as the cynics proclaim, the prospect of elections would be dimmed for the foreseeable future. This would be based on the assertion that the system, in its present form and with its inherent limitations, has failed to deliver in providing relief to the underprivileged and the impoverished of the country. So the hunt may start, yet again, to look for a mechanism that may prove to be more accountable, more transparent and more effective.
If none of this happens, we may continue to rock forward with a lot of noise and bickering. After all, nothing changes in the end. Or, putting it differently, the more it changes, the more it stays the same.
The writer is a media consultant to the Chief Minister, Punjab.
