The two most important unasked questions in the American Raymond Davis case are: Who gave him a business visa and why? Who allegedly upgraded it to a diplomatic visa? Find the answers and we will find out a lot about ourselves.
Davis shot dead two Pakistani motorcyclists while driving a car in Lahore in an area where most diplomats wouldnt venture. Remarkable precision for a diplomat, what? Even if they too were our intelligence agents, they were only doing their duty, protecting their country. Davis too was doing his duty, to harm our country. Therein, lies the difference.
The wife of one committed suicide. Another Pakistani was killed by a vehicle of the US Consulate that was trying to save Davis. Thats four lives lost. The vehicle and its occupants made good their escape to the Consulate and are now probably safe in America.
There are times when intelligence operatives were disowned by their masters if caught. No longer. When Davis was arrested, the US lost its wits and cooked his goose. First he was a Consulate technical operator with immunity. Then he became an embassy employee with stronger immunity.
Obviously, Davis panicked, as did the driver of the other vehicle. In his panic, Davis got caught in a traffic jam and got caught. In so doing, he got two governments into an awful twist his and ours. Why is he so important to the US? Calls for his release went up from Congress to the Secretary of State to the US president in words that were by no means minced. Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, actually came here. We have to let him go, we were told in no uncertain terms.
It seems that Davis is actually an employee of one of those shady American contract companies that go by generic names like Blackwater; these are companies set up by the US military and intelligence to do things that they cannot legally do. They employ mercenaries Dogs of War.
Lest I am accused of being overly patriotic, let me quote at some length from an admirable article by the former Indian ambassador M. K. Bhadrakumar, which is spot on. You can read the full article on www.gauhar.com or www.atimes.com.
Why are the stakes so heavily loaded? What raises eyebrowsis that Davis, who as a highly trained operative killed two motorcyclists who were tailing his car in obtrusive intelligence work for over an hour, knowing full well who they were. As a former US Special Forces officer, Davis was knowledgeable enough to estimate that such obtrusive intelligence was not meant to be life threatening but was intended to be intimidating and obstructive. In short, Davis lost his cool at some point when he found he couldnt shake off his tail.
The Pakistani authorities have been leaking to the media that they knew Davis was in touch with the Pakistani Taliban. The Washington Post quoted Pakistani intelligence officials to the effect that the two motorcyclists were warning Davis that he was crossing some red line (meaning, he was about to do something unacceptable to Pakistans national security interests) and it was at that point he shot them.
Clearly, the US has every reason to believe that the Pakistani side knows much more than it is prepared to admit, and if Davis breaks down after sustained interrogation in police custody, he might spill explosive stuff. This explains the highly contradictory versions that the US has given about Davis identity and the nature of his assignment in Pakistan.
What emerges from the pattern of the US reaction is that Davis detention has sent alarm bells ringing all the way to the White House. The US is apprehensive that the Davis case has the potential to shake up the very foundations of its alliance with Pakistan. Therefore, it has done the most natural thing that most countries facing a grave predicament vis–vis a foreign country would do take the high moral ground straightaway and place itself in denial mode, come what may.
It has been convenient to point the finger from time to time at the Indians, but when Pakistani state institutions were attacked, especially the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence, as precise targets, Islamabad would have had deeper suspicions, especially as a the close links between the former Afghan intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh and the US security establishment was a fact known to Pakistani agencies.
Conventional wisdom, especially among Indian propagandists, has been that what is happening inside Pakistan is a kind of blowback of terrorismWhile this thesis has its seductive power, it is based on simplistic assumptions regarding the processes going on within Pakistan, especially the dialectics involving the vehicles of militancy and extremism and the state security apparatus. The Pakistani military and its highly efficient intelligence set-up could have concluded a long time ago that under the cover of the Pakistani Taliban, all sorts of freewheeling forces were at work.
Washington is openly doing hero-worshipping of Amrullah Saleh even months after Afghan President Hamid Karzai sacked the spymaster almost as a prerequisite for improving Afghan-Pakistan relations.
Davis can most certainly provide the proverbial missing link to Pakistan to connect several dots on an intriguing chessboard. Conceivably, he will be sent back home at some point, but by then he may be a burnt-out case and Pakistan would have gained a far better understanding of the USs regional policies.
Both countries are caught between a rock and a hard place. The rock for Pakistan is jeopardising relations with the US and suffering economic death. The hard place is Pakistani public opinion and risking political death. The only comfort for the government is that while this case remains undecided, no one would wish to replace it and inherit such a difficult situation. The rock for America is that if Davis sings, he could really compromise it in a world it is fast losing control of. The hard place is that a bankrupt Pakistan would be unpredictable. And certainly it can forget about getting out of Afghanistan in one piece.
Davis can get off with agreed blood money or if our government decides to risk taking the hit and lets him go. US commandos cant flush him out, for Pakistan is no Iraq. They cannot wait for the legal process: even if it lets Davis off highly improbable he could have spilt the beans in the meantime. Thats a big No-No.
The writer is a political analyst.
He can be contacted at [email protected]
