Former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has thrown a spanner in the works by claiming that the detained American national Raymond Davis never enjoyed blanket diplomatic immunity under the Vienna Convention. Despite immense pressure on the government by the US, domestic constraints have made it virtually impossible for Islamabad to hand him over to the US at this stage.
The government is between a rock and a hard place on the issue. If it releases the private security operative, it is seen as capitulating to the US at a time when its writ is at its lowest ebb. If, on the other hand, the impasse continues, it will have very serious repercussions for the future of US-Pakistan relations.
Senator John Kerry, while speaking to a group of Pakistani journalists on the eve of his meetings with president Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani, General Kayani and Mian Nawaz Sharif, made it plain that the issue could have unpredictable consequences if it was not resolved. In this context, he mentioned that congressmen belonging to the Republican Party were itching to move a resolution suspending US assistance to Pakistan.
The senator also made a passing reference to the current negotiations between Islamabad and the IMF over its suspended programme. Everyone knows, not least the Americans, the precarious state of our economy. This is a big lever in the hands of our main donor and benefactor.
The importance of the Raymond case can be judged by the fact that President Obama got involved himself by demanding his immediate release. Without ceding any ground that the US operative was not engaged in normal diplomatic activity, he made it sound as if the conduct of US foreign policy would become impossible if its diplomats were detained in this manner.
President Zardaris position is not enviable. His own party man Shah Mehmood Qureshi, in a bid to launch himself politically independent of his Party, has gone to town on the issue. His emotional and hard-hitting press conference on the Eid Milad-un-Nabi accusing the government of pressurising him to grant immunity to the detained American has caused immense political damage.
The Punjab government has been fishing in troubled waters from day one of the crisis. Perhaps emboldened by the stance taken by Shah Mehmood, Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has claimed that the federal government is consistently pressurising him to declare immunity for Davis
Mr Sharif who is generally considered soft on the Americans has now stated that national interest should prevail no matter what the cost. In the same vein, Mian Nawaz Sharif has also stuck to his guns after his meeting with Senator Kerry.
While all this is happening, negotiations on the PML(N)s ten-point agenda with the PPP are faltering. Hence the government coming under intense pressure is in no position to deal a strong hand to the opposition. President Zardari called Mian Nawaz Sharif in Lahore the other day for half an hour. Apart from exchanging usual pleasantries, he could not get any firm commitment from the PML(N) supremo to attend the round table conference proposed by him.
Mian Nawaz Sharif has postponed his visit to London till the end of March when the deadline given by him to the PPP expires. His party hardliners are advising him to break the negotiations and ask the PPP to leave the coalition in Punjab.
Mian Sahib himself is quite disgusted with poor governance at the federal level and feels that the government does not have the political will, the capacity or the manpower to deliver. It is obvious that apart from the economic and security crisis, we are fast entering into a political logjam.
Mian Nawaz Sharif seems to be so fed up with the label of friendly opposition often appended to him that he is now inclined to take the plunge. The only thing preventing the inevitable is that he hates army rule more than the corrupt and inept PPP administration.
The military is observing events ostensibly from the sidelines. With one crisis after another eroding the credibility of the government there is increasing pressure on General Kayani to do something. Already playing the leading role in the US, Afghan, India and internal security policy, the military does not have very many options not even an overt takeover. Its leadership knows that Pakistan today is virtually ungovernable and thanks to frequent interventions in the past, military rule is part of the problem rather than the solution.
Suddenly there is a surge of feigned nationalism on the Raymond Davis issue. Although some of it is genuine, most of it is misplaced. Admittedly Islamabads role in the US exit strategy in Afghanistan is pivotal. But our dire economic straits have made the military even more dependant upon US largesse. At a time when Pakistan does not look good to anyone from outside, US military assistance worth billions of dollars, including the coalition support fund, is no small change.
Ironically, our much-touted India-centric strategic paradigm is not sustainable without US military assistance. We are engaged in an expensive missile race in which we have surpassed India. But in the conventional weapons race, it is no longer a race. General Kayani, in a recent briefing to media persons, voiced his concerns about the difficulties being faced by the military to maintain its force de frappe owing to budgetary constraints.
Hence, notwithstanding our outrage at the heinous crime a gun-toting, fly-by-night US intelligence operative has committed on our soil, the government will have to bite the bullet sooner rather than later and send him home. The issue has been mishandled both by Washington and Islamabad, but ultimately we might have to pay a higher price.
The likes of General (retd) Hameed Gul are suggesting that isolation like North Korea and Iran will be good for Pakistan. God save us from such self-styled paragons of virtue and nationalism who in their own time of service were the biggest stooges of the USA.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.
