The decision of the prime minister to replace the oversized federal cabinet with a relatively small cabinet is a welcome development. The provincial governments of Sindh and the Punjab are also taking measures to reduce administrative expenditure. However, these measures do not necessarily ensure good governance. This objective can be achieved if the federal and provincial governments muster enough determination to pursue this agenda and appoint competent and task-oriented people to key official positions.
Pakistans federal and provincial governments are facing another serious problem. They are fast losing the motivation and capacity to assert their primacy in the management of state affairs. The state-authority appears to be on the retreat because those responsible for exercising it are unable or unwilling to take timely decisions and do not enforce the decisions in letter and spirit. The relevant authorities often postpone the issues until the problems hit right in the face of the relevant government.
The growing crisis of incapacity and non-enforceability adversely affects the ability of the government to address the economic problems and internal security issues. These problems require tough decisions and their quick and full enforcement. The federal and provincial governments, especially the former, falter in this respect. The decisions are delayed and the problems are allowed to fester.
The space created by the inaction of the federal government and the parliament is being filled by other players in the political system. The superior judiciary and non-state players, especially the noisy and more organised Islamic and far-right groups, are on the ascendancy. These are joined by the media, offering categorical views on how to address the problems and often holding what can be described as the media trial of the government personalities or the policies. The political parties and groups engage in street agitation and disrupt civic life to force their views on the government or to condemn their political adversaries. Invariably these groups, especially the hard line Islamic formations, have become a serious threat to democracy; their activists are intolerant towards political dissent and often threaten to go to any extent against the state functionaries and political adversaries in pursuance of their politico-religious agenda.
The troubled economic conditions require tough decisions and their effective implementation but the federal government lacks the capacity to enforce its decisions. For example, several state enterprises like the Pakistan Steel Mill, Pakistan International Airlines, Railways and others, have become a financial liability for the government. Their restructuring is not possible because the government cannot enforce financially viable solutions. Their de-nationalisation is opposed by most workers and their organisations. If the surplus staff, appointed on political considerations, is removed, it is going to be resisted by the workers organisations. The opposition political parties are expected to come out openly in favour of the groups opposed to the governments efforts to restructure these enterprises. Consequently, the government is unable to do anything for restructuring these enterprises.
The same can be said about the strict collection of taxes and introduction of new taxes. If the tax authorities adopt a tough disposition towards the traders and business community for documenting their financial affairs and collecting more taxes they go on strike and engage in disrupting civil life like blocking traffic. The major political parties like different factions of the Pakistan Muslim League and the MQM (an ally of the government) and Islamic parties and groups support the trading and business community against the government because these parties view them as their main vote-bank and financial support. The government steps back in view of these pressures.
The federal governments failure to get the Revised General Sales Tax (RGST) approved from the parliament is another example of inability to pursue tough decision. All political parties, including the partners in the federal cabinet, refused to support the government on restructuring the GST. The government was unable to convince any party on this issue and thus decided to postpone the matter. This was a failure on the part of the federal government to fulfill the requirement for the last installment for the IMF Restructuring Programme that was ending on December 31, 2010. Now, this deadline has been extended up to September 30, 2011, to give extra time to the federal government for enforcement of RGST. The federal government will make another attempt in the national budget in the last week of May to seek parliamentary approval for the RGST.
Corruption is another issue used by the political groups and parties to condemn the government. However, corruption is so deep rooted in society that the government alone cannot tackle it. Other political parties are not forthcoming in extending support for evolving strategies for the elimination of corruption on non-discriminatory basis. The government is thus clueless on this issue and the opposition is interested in using this issue for public mobilisation against the government.
The most glaring example of the governments inability to take firm decisions quickly is the messing up of the Raymond Davis case. Pakistans Foreign Office could have categorically decided about his diplomatic status within few hours of the incident on the basis of its record of the officials of the US embassy. The Foreign Office issued vague statements in the initial stages. Either it did not have the full record of the US embassy personnel or lacked the operational authority to take such a decision all by itself. This delay enabled the Islamist groups to come forward with the demand of his prosecution in Pakistan. The Lahore High Court also jumped into the matter by issuing an interim order that he could not be handed over to the U.S. till the matter is decided by the court. The governments inaction has exposed it to extreme pressures from the politically active circles in Pakistan on the one hand and the US administration on the other.
The decision-making and implementation dilemmas can be found in the handling of the recent strike by PIA employees and price fixation of petroleum products.
Pakistan is now experiencing mini-anarchies in various parts of the country, especially in urban centres where a small but determined group can easily disrupt civic life for hours. The growing paralysis of the policy-makers has raised doubts about the capacity of the Pakistani state to save itself from being overwhelmed by a host of determined and aggressive groups that are proliferating. Pakistan faces the threat of becoming a dysfunctional state.
The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.
