“Nothing goes off suddenly; even the earthquakes set in motion from the depth of the earth to the rooftops of villages.” This line from a poem written two decades ago by a renowned Palestinian poet Mourid Barghouti was reflective of his frustration over the long-brewing political morbidity and authoritarian culture in the Arab world which he predicted will one day be blown over in a popular rage.
The planet’s greatest bastion of authoritarianism – the Arab world – is now under popular siege, sending shock waves to many other similar states in the larger Muslim world.
Starting with the ouster of Tunisia’s dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali on January 14th, the “Arab Street” is up in revolt challenging their dictators, some of whom are octogenarian rulers-for life though regularly elected unopposed with 99.9 percent votes, and others are either the children of fortune born into power or those who acquired power through deceit and force. They all personify Machiavellis prince with a hypocritical and vacillating” personality, wielding absolute authority with no limits, and often reminding of France’s Louis XIV’s famous dictum: “L’etat, c’est moi”– “I am the state.”
From Tunis to Egypt, Yemen and Jordan, young people have already come out on the streets to protest against generations of oppression. Anti-government sentiment is also brewing in Algeria, Morocco, Palestine and Syria where people are disillusioned with their self-serving corrupt rulers. The situation is Egypt has especially been worsening over the past two weeks. Like all dictators, Hosni Mubarak who has been ruling his country unchallenged for over thirty years is not ready to step down. Egypts people want him to quit now. The stand-off continues. More than three hundred people have died till now.
For the West, Egypt has been an important partner in the ongoing peace process with Israel. Washington is inevitably concerned at this turn of events that seems to be challenging the order it has over the decades so assiduously built in the region. In an uncharted global wilderness after the Second World War, the US took upon itself the responsibility of reshaping the new world order. Today, it controls the destiny and oil of almost all countries in the Arab peninsula where it has secured a large military footprint. No wonder, any trouble in the Arab Street is a causes for serious concern in Washington.
In a recent television report, CNBCs Erin Burnett drew an alarming picture of the likely impact of the ongoing revolution in Egypt on US interests in the region due to Egypts history as an ally on matters pertaining to Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. She warned that oil prices would skyrocket if countries in the Middle East broke out from under the rule of brutal dictators who in her view had always been subservient to US interests. If this happens, according to her, the US could take a huge hit because democracy in a place like Saudi Arabia could go stratospheric.
This assessment may be somewhat exaggerated because the Gulf States have all taken good care of their people economically who are enjoying the level of affluence and prosperity that even G-8 countries or other developed states with most democratic and pluralistic system cannot guarantee to their peoples. Some of these oil-rich Gulf States are in the top fifteen per capita GDP indices. Any systemic change in these states is therefore unlikely.
The problems lies in Arab countries with ageing dictators who in Barghoutis words are all fond of dyeing their hair and moustaches, and are now really shaken, puzzled and afraid. Their self-centered policies including rapacious family enrichment as well as endemic corruption by the ruling elite and high-ups have led to serious poplar resentment that now seems to be challenging the American-endorsed old order.
The Arab revolt could spread to other Muslim countries including Pakistan. where under successive governments, both civilian and non-civilian, the culture of “power and privilege” has been thriving on patronage, graft, bribery, extortion, nepotism, cronyism, influence-peddling, fraud and embezzlement. No other country is familiar with the practice of forgiving as a matter of rule the elite loan-defaulters and the known highly placed plunderers of the national exchequer.
President Obama had apparently sensed the simmering sentiment of despair and despondency among worlds Muslims when in his famous Cairo speech two years ago. It should now be abundantly clear to him that it is not hatred of democracy and freedom but the desire for them that has made Muslims around the world resent US policies which they consider responsible for perpetuation of undemocratic and in some cases hereditary polities in their world. The people in these countries are fed up with growing economic hardship and deprivation, and are openly repudiating the politics of deceit and humiliation that they have been enduring since their independence.
In an interview with PBS only a day after protests started in Egypt, Vice President Joe Biden described Mubarak as an ally who in his words had been very responsible on geopolitical interest in the region, the Middle East peace efforts; the actions Egypt had taken towards normalizing relationship with Israel.. He said he wouldnt refer to him as a dictator though in his view it is time for him to move in the direction of being more responsive to some of the needs of his people.”
According to a renowned American foreign policy analyst, Joel Hirst, this statement shows the US on the wrong side of history causing a serious credibility problem with the Arab Street. Against this backdrop, Senator John Kerry rightly sums up the situation by stressing that “the time has come for governments in the region to urgently improve governance and transparency, open the field to true opposition and new political identities, create real avenues for listening to and considering the wants and needs of their citizens, and demonstrate to younger generations that they will have better opportunities tomorrow than they do today.
One hopes the Arab world doesnt experience the Pakistani democratic transition which despite a democratic election has not given the people a true democracy. They have neither a parliamentary government, nor a presidential system. It is a legacy of disaster that the people inherited in the form of the current NRO-based accidental civilian rulers from the ignominious Musharraf era. The common man is suffering the worst ever hardship. The Arab people must avoid our brand of corrupt to the core elected rulers parachuted from outside in the name of national reconciliation.
The writer is a former foreign secretary.
