Bob Woodwords book, Obamas Wars, printed last year still remains valid as it contains the assessment and thinking of President Obama and his senior ministers and officials. The book is devoted almost entirely to the problems and difficulties being faced by the Obama administration in defeating Al-Qaeda, Taliban and other extremist/terrorist organizations allied with them.
According to Mr. Levoy, the top expert on Pakistan in the Obama administration, Pakistan is obsessed with India and does not see with equanimity the growing strategic relationship between the US and India. In his evaluation, an increase of US troops in Afghanistan would be seen by Pakistan as a new headache, because it will drive more Afghan terrorists into Pakistan.
He also expressed the opinion in the National Security Council (NSC) meeting held in October 2009 that Pakistanis, particularly the Army and the ISI, fear that the US plan to build up the Afghan Army to 400,000 in addition to a police force of 80,000 plus, would be under the influence of India. As such, a change of Pakistani mind-set towards Afghanistan and President Obamas strategy was essential for Pakistans full cooperation in US efforts to defeat Al-Qaeda. However, money alone will not persuade Pakistanis to do the needful.
The reluctance of the Pakistan Army to launch an operation against the militants in North Waziristan reflects the correctness of Levoys assessment, which in my view is a pity. It shows that in spite of being a neighbor with a large Pakhtun-Afghan population, knowing their nature inside out, sharing their religio-cultural tendencies, having fully supported them in war of independence against the Soviet invaders and having full knowledge of the history of their victories in the 18th CE over the British colonist, who were then the super power of the world, we are still apprehensive of India having such a great influence on the Afghans that they would be persuaded to act against our territorial integrity. While they would welcome the Indian financial and political support they would not act as a puppet to any attempt by India to dismember or even to destabilise Pakistan.
The fear of our establishment that India would be able to bring a strong and stable Afghanistan in its sphere of influence is, in my view, misplaced and exaggerated. It is perhaps even indicative of our own love for acquiring strategic depth in Afghanistan. This policy of ours has already given rise to deep anger and hatred, even among the Pashto speaking people of Afghanistan. This was conveyed to me by one of the leading lawyers of Pakistan who visits Kabul almost every month and has frequent and in depth contact with Afghans of all shades and hues both in the government and business community.
Even if the fears of India extending its influence in Afghanistan are not totally unfounded, our establishment should feel confident that the advantage our geography gives to us as opposed to India and the interest of the great powers of the world in Pakistans stability and integrity will not disappear. The US has said so over and over again and this has been brought out clearly by Bob Woodward in his book Obamas Wars, in which he quotes US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who expresses a deep interest that the US will have to show in Pakistans independence and integrity in order to undo Pakistanis dislike for the US and concern that it would once again walk away from the region after the defeat of Al-Qaeda/Taliban leaving us alone in the company of two hostile neighbors.
Finally now that we are a nuclear weapon state, we know that India cannot commit an aggression against us, that there is no military solution to the issue of J&K and that relaxation of tension in the region and normalization of relations with India would bring us greater economic and political benefits. Then why do we not begin the difficult journey of shedding the mistrust of India and acquiring greater self-confidence in our ability to militarily and politically resist Indias hegemony over us.
I would like to point out to the readers that the Indian leaders were more responsible for the breakup of India in 1947 than Muslim League leaders; similarly, we were responsible for the breakup of Pakistan in 1971 and not India; that the Russian leaders were responsible for the breakup of the soviet union in 1991, that the Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic and his Serbian cronies were responsible for the breakup of Yugoslavia in 2001 rather than any outside power. There are several other examples of this nature in the recent history of the world let alone in the ancient history.
This brings me again to Shakespeares unforgettable line, The fault, dear Brutus, lies in us and not in our stars
The writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan.