KARACHI – The devastating floods, which had washed away the country’s economy in the face of agriculture infrastructure last year, appear to have started reaping fruits for the agrarian economy of Pakistan.
In August 2010, the unprecedented natural calamity inundated Kharif crops, standing approximately at 2.4 million hectares, and displaced over 20 million people. Among the victims were international surveyors from Asian Development Bank and World Bank, while initial direct and indirect losses stood at over $9.7 billion. Initial assessments reveal that rice, cotton, maize, pulses, vegetables and fruits crops suffered badly.
The floods, however, have also had ‘positive’ side-effects on Pakistan and have filled the water-thirsty country’s reservoirs with excessive irrigational water. According to official sources, current water level at the country’s two major dams, Tarbela and Mangla, is at its full storage capacity. Official sources indicate that floods and heavy monsoon rains had improved irrigation water availability for the ongoing October-March Rabi season to the highest level.
The government is said to have measured the highest-ever water storage levels in Tarbela and Mangla dams, respectively, at 1,560 and over 1,200 feet. During the last Rabi season, the two big dams had hardly received 1,480 and 1,180 feet of irrigation water. Given enough availability of irrigation water, the country’s economic managers, including the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), have pinned their hopes in the aftermath of the natural disaster for recovery of the most-damaged agriculture sector during the current Rabi season.
The government anticipates a significant rise in wheat output, particularly, from un-irrigated rain-fed areas during this cropping season. The Ministry of Food and Agriculture has set a production target of 25 million tonnes against 23.917 million tonnes last year. Minfa expects the sowed hectares to produce at least 2,764 kilogram of wheat.
Production targets for other Rabi crops e.g. gram have also been set upwards at 0.619 million tonnes against the previous 0.571 million tonnes. The State Bank, in its first quarterly report for 2010-11, has also noted that expectations of a recovery in agriculture sector would crucially depend on the wheat harvest, including the increased production from “barani” areas and livestock.
“Water availability in reservoirs is likely to support wheat sowing in irrigated areas,” the bank said, adding that “Area under wheat in non-irrigated areas is also likely to increase due to higher moisture and rains are expected during the current Rabi season.” The central bank said that floods and extended heavy monsoon rains had brightened prospects for this Rabi crop by improvement in the underground water table, soil moisture level and increasing water availability in dams.
According to SBP, an increasing trend in the commodity prices in domestic and international markets spurred a record wheat crop this season. “Government maintained the wheat support price at Rs 950 per 40kg, but small farmers are likely to fetch better prices than the preceding years as both domestic and international prices of wheat are expected to firm up,” it said.
