It is irrelevant whether Mubarak leaves office this week or the next week, what matters is that he has already tuned into another Ozymandias. The mass movement aimed at delivering a coup de grace continues to gain momentum. Mubaraks plans to get himself re-elected for a new term in September and then induct his son into the administration have turned into ashes.
The movement has not only united the Egyptian masses against the arbitrary rule but has also electrified the Arab world. Protests in Jordan have forced the King to dismiss the prime minister with an advice to his successor to undertake economic and political reforms. The otherwise somnolent Yemen is in the grip of public agitation. The heat is being felt by the regimes in Algeria, Libya and potentates in the Gulf sheikhdoms are highly perplexed.
Right from the Day of Rage on January 25 when the protests for the ouster of Hosni Mobarak began, all sorts of tactics have been employed by the administration to demoralise the protestors and break up the movement, without in the least weakening their resolve or causing a dent in their struggle.
Propaganda campaign was launched through state media to portray the movement as a ploy by the right wing Muslim Brotherhood to foment unrest. That was soon belied by the slogans raised by the protestors which were all secular, demanding civil rights, democracy and the ouster of an arbitrary ruler, uncharacteristic of any extremist religious party. The protestors comprised highly educated professionals like engineers, doctors, lawyers, filmmakers who rubbed shoulders with participants from the working class. Muslims stood side by side with Christians. There were leftists, liberals, and Islamists, all united by the sentiment to get rid of Mubarak and to restore dignity to the Egyptians. Devout Muslims offered prayers alongside others who carried beer cans as they shouted anti-Mubarak slogans. Purdah observing women walked side by side with young girls in jeans.
Police fired tear gas (supplied by the US), brought in water cannons and used batons to disperse the demonstrators but their numbers continued to multiply despite the arrests of hundreds of activists and this repression led to deaths running in three figures. From Cairo the protests reached other major cities that included Alexandria, Suez City and Mansoura. Within days the slogan “Down with Mubarak” resounded all over the country.
Dusk to dawn curfew was imposed in Cairo on January 4 and army called in. The protests, however, continued without interruption. The Million March broke all previous records of mass participation any time in the country. Finding that the security agencies alone could not stop the momentum of the movement, the agencies brought in bus loads of goons armed with machetes, rebar, straight razors and clubs and let loose on the peaceful protestors. They hurled petrol bombs, threw rocks and resorted to firing to intimidate the people. Another gang riding horses and camels charged the protestors to disperse them and occupy the Tahrir Square. This failed to break the resolve of the activists for democracy. Tahrir Square is still occupied by those fighting for democracy and a just order.
Failing to intimidate the protestors through strong arm tactics Mubarak took recourse to subterfuge. Putting all blame for the mismanagement of economy and human rights violations on his ministers he dismissed the cabinet and brought in another team promising that it would initiate reforms and undo the wrongs. He directed his new ministers to hold talks with his opponents. Mubarak promised he would not contest presidential elections after his term ended in September. His latest attempt to delay his departure is to pretend that he is willing to leave but needs time for an orderly transition to avoid social upheaval.
The armys role and its ultimate game plan have remained ambiguous. An army spokesman announced soon after it was called in that it sympathised with the peoples demands and would in no case open fire on them. The soldiers were frequently seen fraternising with the activists around the Tahrir Square. They, however, did nothing to stop the regimes goons from attacking the protestors. The army which had earlier been checking ID cards and ensuring that no one carried arms allowed them to pass despite the weapons they were carrying. It remained a silent spectator as they threw firebombs and attacked and injured defenceless protestors.
The movement has shattered the myth of the Muslim Brotherhood being the only force capable of bringing about change in Egypt. It was widely noted that the protestors did not carry the flags of any party, nor did anyone shout partisan slogans. No political group tried to monopolise the movement. By announcing support for a liberal like Mohammad ElBradei to lead the alliance of political groups in negotiations, Muslim Brotherhood in fact supported a position that went against its ideological orientation.
The movement for democracy has brought laurels to Egyptian people. Never before has the Arab street taken on an authoritarian government so long and with such resolve. There are questions about the proposed interim set up, the civil-military relations in days to come and when the elections to usher in an elected set up would be held. It is also being asked if the Americans would allow free and fair elections on account of their fears of the Brotherhood emerging as the major victor. One thing, however, is certain: Mubarak is now a part of the history and the masses are awake. After the baptism of fire they have received it would be difficult for any government to deprive them of their rights.
The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.
