In a brainstorming session organised by the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development (PILDAT) the other day, participants were asked to suggest the way forward in the light of the multifarious challenges of governance being faced by the country. In the words of its executive director: endemic corruption, weakening writ of the state, growing economic crisis and deteriorating law and order posed a real danger to democracy.
The participants, which included a former governor, a retired intelligence chief, retired military officers, intellectuals and columnists were of the view that the present crisis was systematic in nature and could not be fixed merely by a regime change. When specifically asked, none of the participants were in favour of the military intervening despite poor performance of the present political dispensation. In fact, they were of the view that change should only come through general elections whenever the assemblies are dissolved through a natural process.
The hydra-headed monster of an endemic economic downturn and new dimensions of religious extremism in the light of recent assassination of Salmaan Taseer, are threatening to destroy the state fabric. A lot of outrage has been expressed on a recent interview given by defence analyst and US author Dr Stephen Cohen reproduced by this paper, which gives four to six years for Pakistan to self-destruct.
It is hard to agree with Dr Cohens doomsday analysis. However, the fact remains that a country that presently has a fiscal deficit of one billion US dollars a month and is not moving a finger to fix it is in deep trouble. One does not have to be a rocket scientist to predict that borrowings from the State Bank, commercial banks and printing more currency to bridge the gap is a sure recipe for disaster.
While the oil prices have passed the $100 per barrel mark, we have obstinately refused to increase the prices of POL. The PML(N) committee headed by Mr Ishaq Dar to discuss reforms with the PPP in the light of Nawaz Sharifs ultimatum vetoed the proposed increase. Mr Dar, who prides himself on being an economic wizard in this case, was clearly a victim of voodoo economics of his political bosses.
The IMF team that recently visited Pakistan and met virtually all the stakeholders went empty handed so far as its reform agenda is concerned. In the absence of being unable to meet any of the conditionalities our finance mangers were unable to convince the Fund mandarins to release the remaining two tranches. The IMF wants the government to move immediately on reforms rather than wait for the next budget.
The government not only lacks the political will to do so, it is too weak to move without an agreement with its allies and the political opposition. Unfortunately, the MQM and the PML(N) do not want to annoy their core constituency, the bazaar, which is loath to pay any taxes, as it would entail coming under the writ of the much-dreaded taxman through documentation of the economy.
Similarly, our exalted public representatives, the feudals, the sardars and the small zamindars do not want to pay taxes on their agriculture incomes which have almost quadrupled not only owing to increase in the purchase prices but also the international prices of their produce. Even the urban and small town elite in the assemblies do not want to annoy their feudal brethren lest they lose their support base.
Hemorrhaging public sector entities including the railways, Pakistan Steel Mills, PIA and Wapda, overstaffed and mostly headed by cronies and exacerbating the economic malaise, need to be privatised sooner than later. Notwithstanding the IMF agenda, without consensus and political will to fix the economy, Pakistan is fast becoming ungovernable.
Some in the PML(N) naively assume that in any future elections Mian Sahib will again be blessed with a bhari (heavy) mandate and he will easily fix things. Judging by the poor performance of PML(N) in the last few by-elections in the heartland of its core constituency in Central Punjab, it seems like a pipe dream. The PML(N) government in the Punjab has failed to deliver, whereas in other provinces the party has negligible presence.
This does not necessarily mean that the PML(N) will not be able to eke out a majority to form a government at the centre and in the Punjab in the next elections. But in all probability it will again be a coalition led by the PML.
The PPP, despite all its shortcomings, is the only national party of the country. Even if it is unable to form a government in the next elections, it will politically remain a formidable national force to reckon with. It could employ the same kind of obstructionist tactics while in the opposition. Whether Mian Sahib is aware of these intricacies, the outcome of his present negotiations with the PPP will only tell.
For the time being it seems he is more worried about the label of friendly opposition being appended on him. This label has been invented by some television anchorpersons and harks backs to the days when being in the opposition was a zero-sum game. In all democratic countries, the opposition and the government are in the same page or agree to disagree on basic national issues.
Of course, it takes two to tango. Mr Zardari has made a good beginning by appointing Latif Khosa as governor of Punjab, who was specifically instructed to extend an olive branch to the Sharifs. They have also reciprocated in good stead. Relations between the late governor and the PML(N) had come to a dead end.
Most of the points in the PML(N) economic agenda are doable and the PPP should not hesitate in implementing them, as the political credit will go to the government in power. Similarly, the PML(N) should go an extra mile in implementing tax reforms even if they are in the form of further reformed RGST or removal/reduction of subsidies.
Even on issues like terrorism and religious extremism, there is urgent need to develop a consensus. This is necessary to maintain and strengthen a pluralistic society and a political system without which political parties of the likes of PML(N), PPP, ANP or even the MQM will be history.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.
