There hasnt been a domino effect (yet) in the ouster of dictators but there certainly has been a domino effect in uprisings and public articulation of resentment. True, Tunisian strongman Zine El Abidine might be out but the Jasmine Revolution, widely interpreted to be the one extending to all the countries of the region, hasnt yet yielded its second major political casualty. But the change seems to be inevitable. The tenacity with which the movement in Egypt has stuck to its guns has all but ensured that the longtime dictator is most certainly on his way out. Its a question of when, not if. The leadership in this cellular, hydra-headed movement was wise unbeknown to itself by refusing to bow down to any purported concession by Mr Hosni Mubarak. Not for them, any promise of stepping down by the next elections or anything else that falls short of his complete departure. Clashes between the protestors and the pro-Mubarak groups were merely a way of dressing up state crackdown on the protest in parameters more palatable to observers within Egypt and without. There is a consensus in media reports that the pro-government factions were members of the security forces in civvies. The step was to no avail, despite the casualties they yielded.
All this is making all the other tin-pot dictators very nervous. Libyan strongman Gaddafi is nervous. So is the good-looking regime in Jordan, who have already made some changes following protests. Yemen doesnt look too good right about now either. Even the Saudi royals have been very prompt in coming to the support of the Egyptian President. Heady days, these. Is this the stuff history is made of? Maybe. But even if these uprisings do come to fruition, there are plenty of risks. Even if the flaming hoop of the possibility of descending into Islamo-fascism is passed through with aplomb and the countries do install democratic regimes, they are going to be beset with the same problems all too familiar to the nascent democracies of Latin America, South Asia and the Far East. Of armies being self-serving interest groups, taking over routinely, supported by the west, not letting the political class develop. Of populist media outfits going after the politicians more than other institutions. Of public resentment at the noisy and slow nature of democratic governance. All this sounds too familiar to us in Pakistan. Itll be great to have company.
