There might be some within the business and banking community bemoaning the fact that the central bank did not lower the interest rate in the monetary policy that it announced the other day. But they should take comfort in the fact that the SBP did not, in fact, hike the rate upwards. It has to be admitted there would have been considerable pressure from schools of thought within the central bank to do so. The SBP was wise not to heed to the demand. Using high interest rates as the only tool to suck excess liquidity off the money markets that constitutes a major component of inflation is not wise. Central banks the world over need to realise, as the SBP admittedly did, of the balance that needs to be struck between efforts to keep inflation low and attempts to spur economic growth.
But there are variables other than interest rates that figure in the inflation debate. It is hoped that the central banks optimism for the government to reduce borrowing is not unfounded. Though the fiscal side is beyond the SBPs direct ambit, it reads news of multi-party partisan efforts to raise revenues and to reduce expenditures with hope, as do all rational economy watchers. It remains to be seen, however, whether the political opposition will resist populist impulses to oppose imposition of the reformed GST on the revenue side and phase out subsidies on the expenditures side. Without these two attempts, there can be no hope of reducing government borrowing.
Both media and government need to educate the public about the nuances of economic management. The electorate needs to be told that, theoretically, the government can make anything as cheap as it wants, just the way it can lower taxes as low as it wants. It can do all this for some cheap thrills and the sight of jubilation on the streets. But when the effects of the borrowing so much money hit the very same streets, they will lead to something Pakistan has never seen before: hyperinflation. The sort that causes anarchy and lawlessness. The political parties need to get together and figure out which issues are kosher for politics and which are not.