Electoral fault lines

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Most of the targeted killings in Karachi are connected to ethnicity related politics. The mega city whose population has risen to 18 million faces issues related to the representation of various communities in the elected bodies at the city, provincial and federal levels. With those benefiting from the skewed representation are bent on preserving the unjust status quo and those under-represented determined to change it, tension continues to increase. The situation is used by mafias of land-grabbers and drug-pushers who often employ violence to keep the pot boiling.

The MQM has thrived on mohajir votes in every election held since its formation. With migrations from interior Sindh and other provinces increasing, its leadership fears that its hold on the city government and its electoral strength in the Provincial and National Assembly would considerably reduce with the passage of time. It has therefore always resented the influx of labour from outside the city. At one stage, the MQM even demanded that work permits be made compulsory for every outsider who should be bound to leave the city after the expiry of the permit. The demand was shot down by successive governments as it was unpopular in the country.

To maintain the ethnic status quo, the MQM also demanded Pakistani citizenship for the Urdu speaking Biharis living in Bangladesh and their settlement in Karachi. The MQM maintained that the Biharis were in fact Pakistanis stranded in Bangladesh. The demand met with strong opposition from all provinces. In Sindh, it was considered to be a move to turn the local population into a minority.

It was widely believed that MQM workers clashed with Sindhis, Punjabis and finally with Pashtuns as a strategy to discourage those coming from other parts of the country to seek jobs in the port city. The arrivals nevertheless continued on account of the inexorable laws of supply and demand.

Since Karachi is the industrial hub of Pakistan, it needs an unending supply of cheap labour which can be supplied only by the rural hinterland. The city’s population, which is about 18 million currently, is estimated to be growing at about 5% per year. About 45,000 migrant workers are reported to be coming to the city every month from different parts of Pakistan. Over the years as a migrant worker decides to settle down permanently in the mega city, his family joins him too. What is more he also wants to register as a voter. This is where the rub comes.

The Karachi city government undertakes civic development that includes construction of roads, bridges, sanitary works and other social amenities. Karachi being a multi-ethnic city, every community wants maximum resources devoted to the neighbourhood where it enjoys the majority.

The size of representation in the local bodies therefore matters a lot. Similarly, it is also vital for every community that it is justly represented in the provincial and federal legislatures to be able to look after its interests. To help the population live in harmony, there is a need for every community to be justly represented in these bodies. For this the representation has to correctly reflect the ethnic balance on the ground.

There are widespread complaints from the non-Mohajir communities that they are under-represented in the elected bodies at all levels. It is maintained that since Zia-ul-Haq and Musharraf relied on MQM, it suited them to hand over the control of the city to the party and also ensure a larger-than-size representation for it in the provincial and federal legislatures.

In the case of Sindhis, many rural settlements around the city where local population had been living for centuries were dismantled over the yeas. The land mafia connected allegedly to the MQM got the city government to declare these settlements illegal. After the local population was uprooted, the prime land was sold to mohajirs at much higher prices; thus making money while turning the areas into MQMs electoral strongholds. The arrangement benefited both the mafia and the party.

This is also a complaint made by the Pashtuns who now constitute the city’s second-largest ethnic group. With an estimated 6 million belonging to the community, Karachi hosts the largest Pashtun population in the world. Last year which saw more than 1,350 dead in target killings, there was a bitter war of words between the MQM and ANP leadership.

Both communities have their strengths that they can rely upon during the confrontation. Pashtuns have a strong grip on Karachis vital transportation sector and can use transport strikes as a weapon. The Mohajirs dominate the citys municipal political machine and can deprive Pashtun localities of development funds.

Military rulers Zia and Musharraf who supported MQM developed a two-pronged mechanism to keep the city under the MQM thumb. A sizeable number of non-Mohajir Karachiites were not registered as voters and there was gerrymandering of constituencies.

WikiLeaks reveal President Zardari telling US ambassador Anne Patterson that MQM hardly enjoys the support of 20 percent of the population of Karachi and that the party emerged victorious only on the basis of the delimitation of constituencies.

To stop the bloodshed in Karachi which often rouses fears of an impending ethnic cleansing, the federal government has to get the electoral rolls updated by including all the legitimate voters. What is more, the constituencies should be delimited putting an end to gerrymandering. To bring peace to Karachi, electoral results at the city, provincial and federal levels have to correctly reflect the ethnic reality.

The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.