LAHORE – The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has downgraded Pakistan’s paddy production forecasts of 2010 by 3.9 million tonnes, which represents a sharp decline of 38 percent in the production level year-on-year (YoY).
FAO Rice Market Monitor (RMM) report states that consecutive weeks of torrential monsoon showers in late July and August led to the most devastating floods recorded in the history of the country. Extensive damage was inflicted in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KPK) and Balochistan, the main rice producing provinces of Sindh and Punjab, which normally accounting for over 90 percent of national output.
Referring to the latest figures released by the government of Pakistan, the report indicates that an area of over 871,000 hectares out of total 2.64 million hectares under paddy has been affected. On this basis, the FAO has lowered its forecasts of 2010 production in the country by 3.9 million tonnes to 6.3 million tonnes (4.2 million tonnes, milled basis).
However, the report states that considering the scale of the disaster and the dependence on irrigation for rice cultivation, the effects of the floods could well outlast the season, at least until a full recovery of irrigation capacity and basic means of production is ensured. On the other hand, the outlook presented in the report indicates that the global paddy output over the 2010 season is expected to recover by two percent. It is worth mentioning that in the June issue of the RMM, FAO had downgraded its forecasts of world paddy production by nearly 6.5 million tones. However, the new figures now point to a global harvest of 697.9 million tonnes (465.4 million tonnes, milled basis), the report states.
It discovers that though production forecasts in Egypt, Latin America and the Caribbean and in Europe were also lowered, deteriorated prospects in several Asian countries affected by adverse weather conditions accounted for much of this downward adjustment. It states that in many cases, weather anomalies that have negatively impacted these countries have been associated with the establishment of La Ni
