The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) swings back to the treasury benches, the coalition survives and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani stays in office. The chances of a no-confidence motion against him had already diminished as the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the only party that could have unseated the government, decided not to act decisively and just presented a 12-point interim agenda to the prime minister with a 72-hour deadline to say a categorical “yes” or “no” to.
Though the minority government had teetered on the brink, the probability of its fall was not high on the political richter scale as, like the PML-N, the PML-Q – the third largest political party – was also not supporting any move to jolt the current dispensation. After he had lost majority it was, however, crucial for the prime minister to regain the required numerical strength to run administrative business and keep his government functional. He went to No. 90 for a little fence-mending and to woo the MQM back into the coalition.
He succeeded somewhat, with the MQM agreeing to return to the treasury benches but deciding not to join the federal cabinet, just to keep a sword hanging over the government and “push” it to accept all of MQM’s demands. Parting ways with the federal government was a tactical move by the MQM to make the already stumbling government buckle. The strategy worked.
The MQM’s comeback has, however, frustrated the PML-N’s strategy to exert pressure on a struggling prime minister. He chose to bring his estranged ally back into the coalition instead of yielding to Nawaz Sharif’s diktat, thinking that keeping MQM in the fold was a better option than playing second fiddle to an arch political rival. Nevertheless, the PML-N still has a trump card to play and tell the PPP ministers in the Punjab to quit in case the prime minister does not respond positively to its interim reforms agenda – the cut-off date is January 10.
The possible appointment of Babar Awan as the Punjab governor will cost the PPP a seat in the Senate and it is unlikely for the party to win it back.
The appointment of the Punjab governor will, however, reveal the PPP’s strategy in the province vis-a-vis the PML-N. Appointing a hawk in the Punjab will be a clear message of confrontation with the PML-N. And, if the PML-N removes the PPP ministers from the provincial cabinet and decides to take the former head-on, this will clear all hurdles in the way for the PPP and PML-Q to join forces and topple the PML-N’s government. The defection clause in Article 63 will scare the now divided unification bloc back to its mother party – the homework is complete.
