Why does this always happen to us? Whenever we are in dire need of a stable elected government, we are deprived of it. If we review our brief history, it is surprising to note that on every occasion the tides of time turn, we are engulfed by a political crisis. Is this a coincidence? Our bad luck or the careful scheming of international stakeholders? During the Cold War, when the alignment of newly independent countries in the two camps was taking place, these nascent countries were trying to safeguard their independence and sovereignty. But we were under a military rule and the independence which we had paid a heavy price for was pawned off in military agreements. The Kashmir issue which was directly linked with our survival was put on the backburner.
As long as there were elected governments in Pakistan, this issue got due representation in the international agenda and India accepted this as a mutual dispute and was ready to concede the right of self-determination to the Kashmiris. But as soon as the military government was established, Pandit Nehru did an about turn and the Kasmir issue was filed away. The Soviet Union, which had been impartial till then, came out openly in support of India because we were now the military allies of its arch-rival: the US. If democracy had been given a chance and Pakistan had safeguarded its independence and sovereignty, the Kashmir issue would have been solved long ago. But we were bereft of democracy when newly independent countries were establishing their identities as self-respecting democracies.
The 1965 war was imposed on us by the military government and its consequences were disastrous. During the presidential elections in 1964, the Pakistani public came out in full force. But the military ruler, by defeating the Mother of the Nation, Fatima Jinah, killed the spirit of national unity and pride. The 1965 war was an attempt to divert the public outrage that resulted from this election. After being defeated badly, the military dictator signed an agreement in Tashkent which put the Kashmir issue on the backburner. People took to the streets to protest this disgraceful treaty. East Pakistan also felt itself to be the insecure and neglected wing of the country during the 1965 war.
The Movement for the Restoration of Democracy, that started under the leadership of the Mother of the Nation, was unaffected by these vicissitudes. Ayub Khan was brought down by this movement but our misfortune did not end yet. The fruits of the success of this movement were hijacked by one General Yahya Khan who claimed that he would hold free and fair elections and would accept the right of self-determination for the people of East Pakistan. But did a U-turn and refused to give power to the elected party after the elections. This incited the public of East Pakistan to rebel which led to an ignominious defeat for the ruling military cabal.
The public thought that such shame-facing would deter the military leadership from any coup detat but it didnt. Our region was in a phase of a decisive long-term evolution, and as fate would have it, we were enveloped by military rule. This was the time when a few revolutionaries had upturned the throne of monarchy in Afghanistan. If Pakistan had had a democratically elected government, it could have welcomed the revolutionary forces and established diplomatic relations on a good note with them. But the military government, at the behest of the American government, plotted to undermine the incumbent government and Babrak Karmal, in the end, had to call in the Soviet forces to help him out. From that day onwards, the Afghanistan imbroglio has been a malignant cancer for us. Our peaceful society first saw the advent of the Kalashnikov and now, the enemies of the state have piled huge cache of armament. They have prepared so many suicide bombers that peace seems like a distant dream for decades to come. This cancer has been hollowing us out for the past 30 years.
Now it is time for the American forces to start their withdrawal from Afghanistan. Before its withdrawal, the US does not want it to look like a defeat. President Obama wants to convince the American public that they have not been defeated by the Taliban, and that the forces are being called back after the Taliban have been made ineffectual, and that a pro-US government will rule Afghanistan.
This war also contains areas of Pakistan. The US maintains that there are Taliban sanctuaries in FATA where they are provided with training and facilities and use this as a base to attack the US forces across the border. Pakistan is being consistently pressurised to uproot these terrorist havens and stop these elements from attacking the about-to-withdraw US forces. Until now, the refusal of US demands by the Pakistan government was being, simply put, tolerated. But now, since the crucial stage is here; if these attacks on the US forces from cross border elements continue unabated, the US reaction will be severe to say the least.
If the war spreads to Pakistani territory, it will be a time when Pakistan will need a stable representative government which has the trust of its people. Not only will Pakistan need a government with the trust of the people but also with the trust of the establishment. A government whose writ is maintained and exercised, a government with public support on its war policies.
But as this critical time approaches, Islamabad has been engulfed in the fog of misfortune again. A fully functional government, formed with the support of the majority, is now on the downslide and there is no chance of political stability in the coming days. Neither is there a chance of the formation of a government that has the support of the majority in the parliament. On the contrary, political fragmentation seems to be on the cards. The moment of truth for the region is very near and it will have an indelible impact on Pakistan. War is standing on our doorstep while we are once again headed towards discord and instability. No one knows when a non-elected military government could be imposed. Even if the army doesnt step in, a stable elected government doesnt seem likely. We are once again at the mercy of the time. Our fate is, once again, in the hands of others.
The writer is one of Pakistans most widely read columnists.