Whatever the real motivation behind the MQMs departure from the government, the PPP-led coalition has turned into a minority government. The administration is no more in a position to introduce any bill with the confidence of the majority. In case of any of its bills being defeated, it would clearly indicate that the PM has lost the confidence of the National Assembly. It will make the government ineffective in two highly crucial spheres, economy and internal security. The country is facing dire economic problems which require quick action. It is also under pressure from the IMF to introduce unpopular reforms. The delay in getting the RGST enforced has already led to a postponement in the next IMF tranche. The government is now under pressure to rescind its decision of price hike of petroleum products.
The other sphere where a weak government could face problems is internal security. With the government no more in a position to defend its policies, the political support it was providing to the army to fight the militants might start drying up. Voices could again be raised to enter into negotiations with the extremists, thus weakening the military offensive currently underway.
Unless the government is able to induct either the PML(N) or PML(Q) into the coalition, it may not be possible for it to continue to respire beyond a few months. Political parties must realise that this could unravel the system. While reiterating that the PML(N) does not support any no-confidence move, the partys CoC has told Gilani to agree to key reforms in 45 days or else. While this may be an invitation for talks, ultimatums are not welcome as well. The PML(Q), on the other hand, has yet to spell out its conditions. The PPP would be wise to go for an option that strengthens the system rather than creates further problems.
