Situationer – The clouds of uncertainty are thickening with no political party particularly the PML-N being the second largest in the National Assembly taking a clear position on supporting or opposing a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani whose government has lost majority.
Though the PML-N and the PML-Q, which can make a difference, are still undecided on which way to swing, the mood in the National Assembly on Monday suggested that no political party would formally become part of any move aimed at removing the PPP-led numbers-weak coalition. The argument is: But what will you replace it with?
The picture the participants of an informal discussion in the chambers of Opposition Leader Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan painted was bleak, with no one seeing light at the end of the tunnel even if the coalition government falls and fresh elections are held. The economy is in peril, security is not showing any signs of improvement and the political crisis is deepening with every passing day.
While the chances of moving a no-confidence motion against the prime minister are slim, the numbers-strong but divided opposition (as proposed by PML-Q’s Raza Hayat Hiraj and supported by all except the treasury members who sat with their shoulders drooped) pressed the deputy speaker to go for a vote and determine whether the House endorsed or rejected the government’s decision to increase prices of petroleum products.
The deputy speaker however felt relieved when ANP president Asfandyar Wali whose party is a coalition partner of the PPP realized that the move had a covert no-confidence motion wrapped in it and took control of the volatile situation that might have dealt a fatal blow to the government and averted voting on POL prices.
He proposed that the issue could have been resolved amicably in a meeting with the prime minister. All including the PML-N and PML-Q agreed to adjourn the House for consultations – the prime minister survived the first day of the National Assembly session after losing majority.The PML-N is the only political party that can independently move a no-confidence motion against the prime minister as it has the required number of MNAs to put him in the dock.
But the PML-N is unlikely to do so. Though Chaudhry Nisar has categorically said that the PML-N will not support the falling government, he cleverly avoided committing that his party would move a no-confidence motion to rock the boat and send the prime minister packing.
Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain also said his party would not support the prime minister unconditionally, indicating the possibility of helping the PPP-led coalition in a quid pro quo – a power-sharing deal not only in the centre but also in the Punjab. The message Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi gave was unambiguous as well – the PML-Q does not have the numbers required to move against the prime minister.
The PML-Q is keeping its options open and it does not seem to be in a haste to take a position, leaving it to the PML-N to make its stance clear. Politically speaking, the PML-N is on the horns of a dilemma; it cannot afford to support a corruption-ridden government and at the same time it can also not afford that the government should fall when the future is equally murky.
It’s a matter of just four days – the current session of the National Assembly will be prorogued on January 7 and the imminent threat to the prime minister, if nothing happens till the weekend, will have blown over for the time being. And once the National Assembly is not in session, it is for President Asif Zardari to summon it or not until the opposition requisitions a sitting of the lower house of parliament.
Though the president has already put the PPP’s weight behind the prime minister with a commitment to solidly stand by him and foil any attempt to destabilize the coalition government, the search for a new face is also on under a minus-one formula as a last option to change the leader of the House to save the coalition from collapse and prevent a minus-all scenario.
