While the MQM has announced the withdrawal of support to the government, it says it has kept the door open, as does President Zardari, for reconciliation, Babar Awan has clarified that the President is not going to ask Gilani to seek a vote of confidence. Even if a no confidence move was to succeed, of which there is little chance on account of a lack of consensus in the opposition about a new prime minister, mid-term elections would be the only way out which suits no stakeholder. While the PPPs public image has considerably gone down on account of the rampant corruption and rising prices, the PML(N)s has hardly improved meanwhile. Although some see the hands of the ubiquitous establishment behind MQM’s volte face, uncertain conditions in the country do not suit the army either which is engaged in suppressing extremist militants while it is continuously under pressure from the U.S.
Prime Minister Gilanis confidence that his government would, in any case, remain secure is also based on the apparently insurmountable divisions within the opposition. His optimism regarding the PML(N) continuing to support the government is not misplaced either. Despite Ch Nisars categorical declaration that his party could not lend support to the present corrupt set up, PML(N)s options are limited. A beleaguered Gilani could decide to induct the PML(Q) into the ruling coalition by agreeing to pay the price the PML(Q) is seeking in Punjab. This could turn out to be detrimental to the interests of the PML(N). Gilani knows that whether the PML(N) likes it or not, it has got to support the government from outside to be able to continue ruling Punjab peacefully. This explains why Gilani made his first call on Punjab Chief Minister. The PML(N), it seems, is taking time to reach a decision. Failing to get any assurance, Gilani naturally made the next call on the PML(Q) leadership. While neither PML(N) nor PML(Q) seems to be interested in a no-confidence move, the latter wanted the Prime Minister to make up his mind regarding its demands.
If the MQM does not change its decision, Gilani will have to rely on either the PML(N) or PML(Q). Much will depend on what the decision PML(N) takes tomorrow.