The Cassandras have gone into overdrive again, predicting terrible tidings for Pakistani politics. Welcome to the new round of the old! There are two schools: the extreme one says the Pakistan Peoples Party government is about to fall while the moderate school thinks the jig is up for Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani.
The-government-is-about-to-fall school has repeatedly got it wrong in the past year and is about to lose the wager again. Their assessment was that with Maulana Fazlur Rehmans Jamiat-e Ulema-e Islam (JUI-F) leaving the coalition, followed by the exit from the cabinet of the Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM) precursor to the partys crossing over to the opposition benches the move was on.
Pray, a move by whom? The establishment, of course, who else? And to what end does the (ahem) establishment want to get rid of this government? The government is corrupt and is not delivering; the economy is in bad shape; people are getting restive etcetera. Agreed, but how would getting rid of this motley crew turn things around, unless the next bunch can abracadabra its way to happy times? Hmm, but something must happen.
Change there must be, but how, no one knows. Neither does change always mean for the better. But never mind that.
Well, if the establishment, whatever it means and whoever that shadowy entity incorporates, is to act as a rational player, no major change is likely at this point. Of course, peoples and entities can miscalculate and if we accept that the two elements most abundant in this universe are hydrogen and stupidity, stupidity more than hydrogen, then perhaps.
The moderate school of Cassandras has another theory. According to them, Gilani is on his way out. Of late, tongues have wagged and thumbs worked to the bone texting allegations of Gilanis swelling fortune, money and assets made through illegal means. Funnily, no one has gone to court so far and the income tax department hasnt come into play. Allied with this is the argument that Gilani, as prime minister, has failed to deliver and has got his lackeys appointed to various important positions, which he seems to have — but really!
The theory is that President Asif Zardari wants to get rid of Gilani and has created the current crisis so he can axe him. Here, the shadowy establishment has been replaced by Zardari pulling the strings from the Presidency. Lets consider this thesis.
The current crisis began when Rehman walked out of the coalition after Gilani sacked Azam Swati, a JUI(F) minister in his cabinet. Gilani also sacked Hamid Kazmi, a PPP minister. The two sackings followed a suo motu notice taken by the Supreme Court of complaints regarding Hajj arrangements for the pilgrims. After Rehman walked out, he also demanded that Gilani be sacked for sabotaging the politics of reconciliation. Lets now test our Zardari-done-it theory.
There are two possibilities: one, if we consider this a game-plan, would go like this Zardari first created the Hajj scam, then induced the SC to take notice of it, then prevailed upon Gilani to sack Swati, then got Rehman to walk out of the coalition and then told him to ask for Gilanis removal. Too many thens dont wash.
The second possibility is that Zardari decided, after Rehman walked out of the coalition, to take advantage of the situation and get rid of Gilani. In this case, Zardari might be accused of leveraging a situation to his advantage but cant be of creating it as part of a bigger plan.
But there are other questions. Why would Zardari want to replace Gilani when Gilani has cushioned him from several crises and remains his best bet with the PML(N)? Except for Rehman now, who has said this for his own parochial reasons, all other political players think they can do business with Gilani so the second question is: who would Zardari replace Gilani with? Finally, why would Zardari want to give an impression that his own party leader was not on the same page with him?
But wait. Theres another crisis too, presumably a bigger one involving 25 members of the MQM and not just the half dozen or so JUI(F) legislators. If the MQM walks out, Gilanis government will fall. He has the support of 185 MNAs in the 342-member house, just 13 more than the required 172.
Here, the situation becomes more complex. Is the MQM in on Zardaris get-Gilani plan? Some analysts think it is and may soon demand that Gilani be removed. But consider.
The MQM has three main concerns: controlling Karachi, which means local government control so the party wants the Sindh chief minister to move fast on that score; the rise of the Awami National Party (ANP) in the metropolis; and what it perceives as covert PPP support for the ANP. The cumulative effect, the MQM thinks, is the attempt to dilute its control of Karachi. For the MQM, losing Karachi means death.
Equally, however, the MQM knows that while it can effectively do brinkmanship to extract concessions from the PPP government, if it goes over the brink, all bets are off. Which is why, while it has decided to leave the cabinet, it stays on the treasury benches. If there were a larger conspiracy, with the MQM in cahoots with the establishment, the party would have taken a single leap across the political divide.
In fact, by picking up a quarrel with PML(N), a freak happening, the MQM has also weakened its bargaining position vis–vis the PPP. If it were to walk over to the opposition benches, the PML(N) is unlikely to let the government fall.
Corollary: short of any irrational move by one or more players, 2011 is likely to see more of the same. Since this column appears on the last day of the year, cheers to ho-hum politics!
The writer is Contributing Editor, The Friday Times.