In separate interviews, four former Taliban officials, now living in Kabul, recently told me that the Taliban leaders want to open a political office in a third country that is not Afghanistan or Pakistan, so that they can start talks with the Kabul regime, the US and NATO. All four occupied high office in the 1990s when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan and cannot be identified for security reasons. They remain in touch with the Taliban leadership based in Pakistan and have facilitated Karzai’s attempts to talk to Taliban leaders since 2008.
They all said that negotiations would only be possible when they were free to negotiate from a neutral place – preferably an Arabian Gulf state, Turkey, Germany, or Japan. The four former Taliban officials also called for a release of all Taliban prisoners held by the US in Guantanamo and Bagram and the removal of the Taliban names from a list of terrorists that is maintained by the UN Security Council. They deemed Taliban-US talks as essential because the US is “the occupying power.” In an interview Karzai made it clear that only talks with the Taliban could end the war, but so far the US is not in agreement.
US commander General David Petraeus is less keen, wanting to continue the surge next year, killing more Taliban commanders and weakening others before inviting them to any negotiating table. He believes that the Taliban leadership can be broken, fragmented and split off one by one. The US administration is divided about the need for talks now or later. Moreover, presently neither Karzai nor the Taliban have a clear agenda for talks.
The Taliban leaders said that their first political aim would not be to lay down terms for power-sharing with Karzai, but to reach an agreement on a definition of what the future Afghan state would look like. After the US, their main criticism is directed at Pakistan and the military and the ISI whom they accuse of micromanaging their affairs even though Pakistan gives Taliban fighters sanctuary. They said the ISI tries to influence their decision making. Their main concern seems to be how to break free from Pakistani pressure and influence as they fear that Pakistan wants to negotiate on their behalf.
Karzai, neighboring states, the US, and NATO need to work together on a common agenda that reduces regional tensions and builds trust between the Taliban and Kabul. Any new approach to peace must include reciprocal confidence-building measures by Pakistan, Iran, and India as well as by the Taliban and the West. Here is a possible step-by-step approach, involving all the players, that is intended to build trust and confidence in the region so that ultimately negotiations with the Taliban can take place.
1. NATO, the Afghan government and Pakistan free most Afghan Taliban prisoners under their jurisdiction and seek to accommodate them safely in Afghanistan or allow them to seek refuge in third countries. NATO guarantees freedom of movement for Taliban mediators opening an office in a friendly third country.
2. Iran enters into negotiations with the United Nations and European countries to end its safe haven for Afghan Taliban and allow them to return home or seek refuge in third countries. None of these actions includes amnesty or safe passage for Al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups.
3. The Taliban respond with confidence- building measures of their own such as publicly dissociating themselves from Al-Qaeda, ordering an end to the targeted killings of Afghan administrators and aid workers, and an end to suicide bombings and burning schools and government buildings.
4. The US, NATO and the UN declare their willingness to negotiate directly with the Taliban when the Taliban publicly request it, although they insist that the dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban remain the main avenue for negotiating a peace deal.
5. A new UN Security Council resolution calls for negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban to bring the war to an end. The UN resolution mandates its special representative in Kabul to help those negotiations and to start a dialogue between Afghanistan’s neighboring states to reduce their mutual antagonisms and interference; the resolution also calls for Afghan Taliban leaders who do not have ties to al-Qaida to be struck off the list of terrorism suspects.
6. India and Pakistan enter into secret talks between their intelligence agencies to make their presence in Afghanistan more transparent to the other and end their rivalries. Later the two governments come to agreements that would allow each one to tolerate the other’s embassies, consulates, rebuilding activities, and trade interests in Afghanistan. Both pledge not to seek a military presence in Afghanistan or to use Afghan soil to undermine the other.
7. Central to any plan would be a deal with the separatist insurgents in the Pakistani province of Balochistan who make use of territory in Afghanistan to carry out their attacks on Pakistan. To address the problem, Pakistan issues a general amnesty for all insurgent Baloch separatist groups and dissidents and announces its intentions to discuss a new peace formula with all Baloch separatist groups to end the current insurgency. The army and ISI free all Baloch prisoners they are holding including the hundreds of “disappeared” prisoners.
8. The Afghan government makes a commitment to return all Baloch separatist leaders on its soil once agreement is reached on a political deal in Balochistan and safe passage for Baloch leaders to return home is guaranteed by the Pakistan army and an international agency such as the International Committee of the Red Cross.
9. Pakistan issues a timetable and deadline of between six to 12 months for all Afghan Taliban leaders and their families who want to do so to leave Pakistan and return to Afghanistan. Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the UN would jointly help those Taliban not wishing to return home and not on any terrorism list to seek political asylum in third countries. Simultaneously Pakistan would undertake military action in North Waziristan in an effort to destroy remnants of al-Qaeda and Afghan and Pakistani Taliban who may remain and try to sabotage any peace process. Pakistan would also make determined efforts to bring FATA into the body politic and constitution of Pakistan.
10. The Afghan government works to build a national consensus inside the country among all ethnic groups, civil society and the tribes before entering into formal negotiations with the Taliban. Negotiations also start between the US and the Taliban. The US agrees to sharply restrict killing of Taliban leaders by drones and other means.
The writer is a journalist and best-selling author of several books on Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia