Many would readily agree that deepening relations with China, as decided by the troika on Wednesday, is in Pakistans interest provided unrealistic expectations are not harboured. China is an all weather friend who has always helped Pakistan in economic, defence and diplomatic spheres. It has in fact been the policy of every Pakistani government, civilian as well as military, to continue to strengthen ties with our neighbour in the north. So what is the need to reassert the need?
The desire has been expressed at a time when relations with the US are under stress due to unrealistic expectations on the part of our political and military leadership. The establishment feels jilted on account of Washingtons ongoing love affair with India. The enhancement of Washington-New Delhi ties actually started during the second tenure of the Bush administration which agreed to provide advanced nuclear technology and an access to nuclear raw material to India, refusing to treat Pakistan at par with its traditional rival. Washington was unhappy, and for good reasons, with the role played by Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan in nuclear proliferation. This gave Musharraf regime a shock as, after turning Pakistan into a frontline state in the war on terror, it had developed the unrealistic notion that Pakistan would henceforth be given preference over India despite the latters economic potential.
The army is unhappy with the US which continues to pressure it to initiate military operations against Taliban and Al Qaeda strongholds in North Waziristan. Added to this now is the demand for action against militant groups with global reach inside Pakistan, JuD (Lashkar-e-Taiba) being on the top of the list.
What has specially piqued the army are signals emanating from the US media that are supposed to indicate the mindset of the Obama administration. There are hints that Washington might decide to arm twist Pakistan if action was lacking in North Waziristan and against networks still collecting hides and skins to raise funds for militancy. It has been suggested that pressures available to Washington include giving greater role to India in Afghanistan, increasing military sales to it and undertaking joint exercises with the Indian army, navy and air force. It has also been suggested that the US might remain unconcerned if India was to put military pressure on Pakistan in case of another Mumbai type terrorist act in an Indian city.
Is Chinese policy on terrorist networks any different from that of the US?
The Chinese policy towards terrorist groups is in no way different from that of the US except that the Chinese put forth their views in a more cultured way. It would be unrealistic to hope that enhanced relations with China would imply that there would be no need to fight the terrorists. Highly sensitive about its national integrity, China is threatened by a breed of extremists in Sinkiang, ideologically and organizationally affiliated with Al Qaeda which has been provided shelter in the past by both Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. China is, therefore, going to seek the elimination of all of them albeit more politely.
Will China come to Pakistans help in case of conflict with India? Will it support us over Kashmir?
China is fully absorbed in building its economy and maintaining peaceful relations with neighbouring countries despite Washingtons attempts to drag it into regional conflicts in the Far East. While China would provide diplomatic, economic and some military help in the form of equipment, it would stop short of anything that has the likelihood of dragging it into conflict with India.
Despite its border disputes China, unlike Pakistan, has maintained a nuanced policy towards India, enhancing manifold its trade and economic ties with New Delhi and without budging an inch from its stand over the border issues. It has shunned any serious confrontation with India after 1963. This is a sensible policy but would it satisfy the hawks in the corridors of power in Pakistan?
China is expected to strongly advise Pakistan not to provide India any excuse to threaten it and to meanwhile ensure that its territory is not used for attacks against India. The highly pragmatic and forward looking Chinese leadership has always advised Pakistan to put the issue of Kashmir on the backburner till it is economically strong and a favourable regional and international situation exists to get the dispute resolved, which may take several decades. Most of all it would suggest that Islamabad should avoid adventurism, resume normal relations with India, enhancing trade with New Delhi as China itself is doing.
Will China provide the rulers with billions of dollars in aid?
The Chinese have earned whatever they possess through sheer hard work and thrift. They are likely to tell Islamabad to reduce dependence on others. China might make more investment in Pakistan and find out ways to promote mutual trade, which should be welcomed. But Islamabad should forget about getting from the Chinese the type of big aid provided under the Kerry-Lugar Bill.
About nuclear technology. The Chinese have already promised to set up more nuclear power houses in Pakistan. They cannot, however, help Pakistan in securing world wide access to nuclear technology and material as the US has done in the case of India.
Anybody thinking that the Chinese would act as our patrons is still living in the Cold War era characterized by two equally balanced blocs who were always in search of clients. America remains the sole super power despite the economic blood letting caused by its recent economic downturn and by two costly wars it has fought. China is likely to suggest that being a weak country Pakistan should put up a brave face and continue to maintain good but honourable relations with the US.
The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.
