If one accepts the current news item doing the rounds that the US is asking for permission to conduct drone attacks on Taliban hideouts in Quetta, then one has to implicitly accept as well that the US did ask for permission to carry out the drone attacks currently going on. But the Government of Pakistan incessantly protests them which flies in the face of this logic and proves that these attacks are taking place without the governments consent. Will these new attacks also take place without such an express permission? Will we keep protesting in a similar fashion?
Wars have their own mechanisms. Once embattled in the field, the adversaries have little control over the outcome. If it were otherwise, the US would have had its way with all the wars it dived headlong into. Be it Vietnam or Afghanistan, the US could not get its desired results. When the US invaded Vietnam, its intention was to engage Vietnam only but it had to fight it out in three countries and lose ground in all of them. The US succeeded in dislodging Saddam Hussein and his associates in Iraq but the larger plan that was behind its offensive remained unfulfilled. Ostensibly, its being proclaimed that the US has pulled out of Iraq but 50,000 US personnel are still stationed over there. The US has to continuously bear the cost of keeping its troops there and providing them with logistic supplies; which equates to fighting a full-blown war. Nobody knows as to how long the US has to be in this quandary?
The US didnt think for one second while invading Afghanistan that it will have to conduct operations in Pakistan. After two years of the invasion, America in its hubris thought that it had now conquered Afghanistan and that it could leave after installing a puppet government of its liking. But its been almost a decade now and the US is still entangled in the imbroglio. After intense discussion and deliberation in the NATO conference held in the past few days, the date for evacuation was moved up to 2014 from 2011. While 2014 is the announced date, 2015 has also been included;just to be safe. It is very probable that the way the jump from 2011 to 2014 was made, a jump 4 years into the future from 2014 could also be made in a similar vein.
Afghanistans bad luck started the day the Soviet Army decided to set foot on that ill-fated land. The Soviet Army eventually left but the ravages of war never deserted this country. But the war never died and then America and its allies jumped into the fray. Its been more than nine years now. Whenever the US and its allies set a date for a pullout, the designs of a new war begin to emerge well before that date. Even if the US pulls out from this war now, new players will enter the game to keep it alive. This country has been subjected to the depredation of war for more than a third of a century. It is safe to assume that four more years would be added to this war.
This very war will be elongated and even if the US and its allies decide to leave, new actors will get their knickers in a twist to enter. Pakistan and Iran share borders with the country but India, China and Russia are also waiting in the wing to exercise their influence in the country. Hence, if the US and its allies leave, these five players are ready to try their luck in Afghan land. It cannot be said how friendships and enmities will pan out. But the real competition will be between these five as the war stricken Afghans, already divided into tribes under various war lords, would become allies to one of these five and would be spilling each others blood.
There is not just one facet to this war but many. The struggle for gaining power and influence would rage among the countries but there is one player that should not be forgotten: the international drug mafia. This mafia has entrenched itself deeply in Afghanistan during the past 30 years. An entire generation is now tied to the international drug market by working for this mafia. The system for growing raw material for drugs is fully functional while the venues for production have become well established. The web of international distribution has been cleverly laid out. These systems have become so effective and well practiced in the past three decades that neither international borders, nor international agencies, even armies, are a hindrance in their path.
This mafia has engulfed everybody. A part of this mafia is responsible for the growing of drugs while another is reaping the benefits of providing their expertise in marketing these drugs. Everybody, from the local warlord to the commanders of foreign forces to even lowly ranked officers, has a share and whosoever departs leaves an appropriate replacement so that the system remains functional. The ruling classes of Afghanistan, currently in a state of war, have some share in illegal business.
The money that the Pentagon and CIA distributes to buy the loyalties of Taliban commanders is also received by those who are among these drug mafiosos. Those, who are assigned to distribute this money, too have a vested interest in these covert riches. This is a demon which cannot be tamed by the collective power of the international community. Even though its the Afghan land that been exploited, the beneficiaries of this black money are spread all over the US, UK, India and Russia. All of them have ties with influential people of their respective countries to an extent that even policy making is not outside their purview.
It should be remembered that the wars that capitalist countries governments dabble in are not for the good of the people. They are fought to benefit the local forces that fashion power nexuses. For example, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were initiated to benefit the investors in the international marketplace. If the balance sheet of the Iraq war is closely examined, the value of the contracts and tenders awarded to private companies dwarfs the cost of the war itself. The cost of the war was borne by the national exchequer and, hence, the taxpayers whereas all the benefits were accrued to the ruling classes of the Allies. The situation is similar in Afghanistan. The war in Iraq is heading towards an end simply because that country is enriched with oil which can be inducted into the regular trading market. But drug trade can never be regularised and brought into the mainstream. It needs, nay thrives on, the havoc of war which is conducive for black trades.
For the time being, there is no chance of America departing from Afghanistan. It has to extend this war into Balochistan. But as soon as this war enters Balochistan, new interests groups will have a stake in prolonging the war. They will be the same interests that are active in Iraq right now. There has been investment in the oil industry along with the reconstruction contracts. Many big contractors have secured long-term contracts over there. They all have their eyes now set on Pakistan after Afghanistan. Whether they enter through the hegemony of financial institution controlled by the US or they use the channel of extending the war into Balochistan, their eventual invasion into Pakistan seems inevitable. The US and Russia, perhaps, could never have become allies but there are huge mafia setups that have gained a stronghold in Russia as well, which is why Russia seems to have become an ally of the US in Afghanistan. This alliance is possible only under the influence of the mafias in both the countries. So, will the Afghan War continue? I fear that it shall continue for as long as it already has.
The writer is one of Pakistans most widely read columnists.
