The Mumbai Airport is the fifth largest airport in the world and it is host to more or less all the biggest airlines in the world. After two days, this airport shall be closed to all flights. On the 6th of November, the US President Barack Obama is coming to India for a visit. As you read this, the Mumbai Airport has been in the control of American security guards for the past two days. On the night of 5th November, every Indian security guard will be ineffective. Anybody with an Indian citizenship and an Indian visage shall not be able to enter any lounge in the airport without going through a strenuous American security check. Only American experts will provide the technical services on the runway and it is only American authorities that will issue special passes. Indian authorities issued passes will not be accepted.
Then riding on a special helicopter, President Obama will land at a spot near the Taj and a convoy of three identical cars will then head towards the Taj Hotel. One of these cars will be the Presidents designated ride. I have written this detail for a reason. When President Clinton came to Islamabad after touring India, the same kind of security arrangements had been made for him. Back then, our so-called liberals and supporters of democracy had vociferously protested. Some wrote that America had annexed Pakistan while others opined that the Americans have insulted our security system by taking security into their own hands. It was also said that the city of Islamabad had been locked down only for the American president. There were as many opinions as there were voices.
Even though the region which the president was visiting was host to many terrorist movements at that time. But our detractors, a vast majority of whom silently, nay happily, bore the US servile army governments, were irritated by the US Presidents security arrangements upon his visit to Pakistan. These very people, even when invited by a government underling (let alone the US president himself) would jump with joy and trot head over heels to him. I think seeing such security arrangements in India must have appeased them. We have a strange psychological affinity for being pleased at each others misfortunes while taking displeasure when the other gains any benefit. I have explained this detail to mollify our intellectuals and liberals.
President Obama is visiting India when strategic relations between India and the US stand at a critical juncture. While Indians would like to label this relationship a partnership, the US tags them as a strategic alliance.
President Obama is the first American president to tour India during his first presidential tenure. It was the norm for all his predecessors to visit India in their second tenures. He is also the president in whose tenure celebrating Diwali in the White House was formally initiated. He is also the president one-third of whose ministers have toured India in the last eighteen months. He is also the president who has included more Indians in his administration than any American president before.
Given the special nature of the subcontinent, the American president will be especially concentrating on Indo-Pak relations in his current visit to India. But the Afghanistan issue will be top of the list. India will indeed want that the US must ensure the protection of Indian interests in Afghanistan before it pulls out its troops from there. Whenever India mentions this, its clear and obvious meaning is that India wants facilitation from the US to increase its influence within Afghanistan. This is because India is aware of the fact that Kabul will long be under the influence of the US, even after the evacuation of the US armed forces from the region. The pullout does not mean that the US troops will not be stationed in Kabul in significant numbers anymore. India will also be keen on preventing Pakistan from being on top in Afghanistan.
America is mindful of the fact that India should get a chance to protect its interests in Afghanistan. But it already has a list of countries that have interests tied up there. This list includes China, Russia and other Central Asian states whose borders meet that of Afghanistan. By including India in the list, the US is giving a clear indication of the degree of importance it is willing to accord to Indian interests in Afghanistan. Iran and Pakistan are labeled as major stakeholders. There will still be negotiations with respect to the fact that how much consideration should be given to Indias gratification when determining the nature of Indian and Pakistani interests in Afghanistan.
Fareed Zakaria gave a very meaningful answer when he was asked to compare Indian and Pakistani relations with the US. He said, India is our strategic ally whereas Pakistan is our problem. The word problem can be viewed in many different ways. It could mean that protecting Pakistani interests, at a time when Pakistans own government lacks the ability to, is a test for America. This could also mean that the US has no hindrances and difficulties in establishing mutual relations with India whereas Pak-American relations are riddled with problems. Another meaning of the word problem highlights a totally negative picture i.e., the US thinks that if Pakistan is left to its own devices, then centers of terrorism will proliferate here and the civilised world will face a greater threat of terrorism. For example, in the 1990s, Pakistan was left alone by the US which led to terrorism taking deeper roots in Pakistan.
Moreover, the Americans also think that Pakistani authorities do not have the ability to protect their nuclear capabilities on their own. Hence, there is the threat of nuclear arsenal ending up in the hands of terrorists if the US does not intervene. On top of that, India alleges that the Pakistan Army is not sincere in the war on terrorism, and that the army will keep patronising terrorists to use them against India. According to India, it is indistinguishable whether India or the West is a target of the terrorist camps that are, or will be, operational under the armys aegis.
Pakistan has made many goodwill gestures ahead of the US premiers visit to India. The Pakistani foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, has expressed agreeable sentiments with regards to visiting India. Pakistan has also not reacted as strongly as it usually does with respect to Indian violation of human rights in occupied Kashmir. On the contrary, in light of the conditions in Kashmir, the aggression in the Wagah border flag-lowering ceremony has been toned down. Instead of the ceremony being an expression of hatred, it is now facilitating an expression of friendship. This is a very big signal. Pakistan hopes that India will ask the visiting president to help improve the mutual relations of both countries instead of predisposing him to anti-Pakistan policies. It is indubitable that this visit will have important implication for Pak-American relations and Afghanistan.
The writer is one of Pakistans most widely read columnists.