As the law and order situation in Karachi deteriorates, threatening the PPP-MQM marriage of convenience and with the animosity between the PPP and the PML-N in the Punjab and in the centre also intensifying the rumour mill has once again started churning out reports of an impending change and that next two weeks are critical.
Though the PPP believes it can continue to govern the province of Sindh where even without the MQM it has simple majority in the assembly, the coalition in the centre without the MQM will collapse. In view of this delicate political situation, behind-the-scenes wheeling and dealing between the PPP and the PML-Q has already begun.
However, insiders say that this time the PML-Q is in a bargaining position and it will certainly not support the PPP for the sake of support. The quid pro quo the PML-Q will seek will not be short of the top position in the Punjab. But this again requires the PPP and the PML-Q to win over the forward bloc of the Q-Leaguers who too will have the best time in politics to gain the most from this situation.
The Chaudhrys of Gujrat are eyeing the Punjab CMship and Moonis Elahi (former Punjab CM Chaudhry Pervez Elahi’s son) is their candidate. A close aide of President Asif Zardari hinted at a possibility of the PPP’s alliance with the PML-Q and said this time the president, who had earlier not agreed to this option, could be flexibile.
On the other hand, as some of the forward bock members are also sitting on the fence vis a vis joining the PML-N, the Sharifs will certainly try to rope them in and save their government in the Punjab because losing the largest province at this time will isolate them politically, with all forces joining hands against them.
Pir of Pagaro’s impending visit to Lahore to unite PML factions on one platform is also significant. But this may not work as the Sharifs are unyielding in their position to sit with whom they see as the deserters who parted ways with them and gathered under the umbrella of a military dictator.
Another option vis-a-vis Sindh is also under consideration; that if the MQM quits the coalition the federal government, instead of choosing to form an independent but fragile government in the province, may suspend the provincial assembly and impose Governor’s Rule in view of the political and law and order situation.
Political pundits are also expecting a motion against the prime minister. Their view is that the break-up of the PPP-MQM coalition will encourage the powers-that-be to also chip in and scuttle any political move to save the current dispensation. Several formulae have already been floated and discussed in media and political circles.
Interaction with a range of diplomats in Islamabad also suggests that the situation is disconcerting at best. However politicians, diplomats and bureaucrats are equally clueless as to what direction this situation will take. But one thing that they all agree on is that military intervention is not a solution.
Though the executive-judiciary row over the withdrawal of the executive order through which the judges were reinstated has come to an end, the Supreme Court’s decision on the 18th amendment today, if it strikes down certain articles and clauses, may spawn a new controversy as the government is considering taking this constitutional matter back to the parliament. This time it may draw the executive, judiciary and parliament into a conflict.
