False predictions


October 13th came and went. Yet another date has passed. The government did not fall. Some from the commentariat are seething with rage; others are pretending to be relieved. Some are embarrassed at having made yet another incorrect prediction, while a minority from within them have the sort of smirk only an I-told-you-so can bring about.

To paraphrase the great economist Milton Friedman, you dont judge a model by the validity of its assumptions but by the accuracy of its predictions. The elaborate lattice framework of assumptions one gets to see in the press again and again is belittled every time by the rustic ruling party politicians whose simplicity seems to be the subject of so many jokes in the press. The latters response to the aforementioned predictions is not a matching play-by-play but a simple, cool, were going nowhere.

There is an irony in the fact that though the prophets of gloom and doom hold the apex judiciary in great esteem, they expect them to show an abject lack of professionalism. Perhaps the expectation that the honourable judges will pass a summary decision like a military court, one that isnt all too bothered with either letter or spirit of the law, might stem from a yearning for military courts proper. The court is well aware of the law and has accepted the Attorney Generals second stint at the post within one year. It is the job of the political government, however, to get its act together and cooperate with the court in the matter. The game of musical chairs that it has been playing with the position of its legal counsel in the NRO cases might be allowed by the courts but does not bode well for the governments image. This is a developing country and the energies of the government are better spent elsewhere.

In the meanwhile, the rumour mills have whipped into action again and a new ominous date is expected to be announced soon enough.